MARKETS: Recovery puts focus on Fed
BERNANKE: Committee to vote on chairman's second term
CLIMATE: Obama goes to Copenhagen
DEALS: A look at the hot sectors
MARKETS - Even though some of the major players are already calling it quits for 2009, there's still enough going on to make next week an interesting one for U.S. financial markets. A flurry of economic data suggesting improvement in consumer demand and sentiment -- and steadily improving business outlooks -- has toned down talk of a double dip and given more credence to those who think the Fed will boost rates sooner rather than later. Any change in the Fed's statement on Wednesday (see below) could throw a wrench into the crowded sell-dollar-buy-everything-else trade. Dollar strength on the back of stronger data could still hold back stocks. Strong data could also force bond yields higher, and not just long-term, but ultra-low short-term yields, after the spread between the two-year and 30-year hit a record in the past week. david.gaffen@thomsonreuters.com
BERNANKE AND HIS BAND - The Federal Reserve's policy-setting panel meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and will need to nod to signs the economy's recovery is gathering strength in the statement it releases around 2:15 p.m. (1915 GMT) on Wednesday. But don't expect the Fed to ditch its long-standing vow to hold interest rates at exceptionally low levels for "an extended period." The following day, the Senate Banking Committee meets to vote on Ben Bernanke's nomination to serve a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve. While his confirmation hearing was contentious, most senators seem ready to give him their backing, which would send the nomination to the full Senate for a final vote at a future date. tim.ahmann@thomsonreuters.com
U.S. ECONOMY - U.S. November industrial output data and December regional manufacturing data for New York state on Tuesday and the Mid-Atlantic states from Philadelphia Fed on Thursday should confirm the U.S. economic recovery, while inflation is not expected to be a threat in November consumer and producer price data, which come out on Tuesday and Wednesday. tim.ahmann@thomsonreuters.com
M&A PACKAGE - Dealmaking is on the rebound. We'll look at the hot sectors, the deal structures, how the IPO market is shaping up, where private equity players are placing their bets, who the movers and shakers are and the outlook for distressed assets and bonuses. We'll also identify the biggest value creators and destroyers among deals in the past decade. All with the latest league tables from Thomson Reuters. The package runs on Friday. christian.plumb@thomsonreuters.com
FINANCIAL REGULATION - Commissioner Bart Chilton told us last month that the CFTC would like to issue its proposal on how to tame excessive speculation in commodity markets by the end of the year, which could mean this week, given the holiday interlude. While some slippage could be expected, we are alert for possible news on position limits -- and possible end-user and hedger exemption. russ.blinch@thomsonreuters.com
ENERGY INVENTORIES - After a year in which natural gas dramatically underperformed oil, the two fuels now appear to be moving toward a more typical balance after an unexpectedly big drop in gas inventories boosted gas prices to their highest since last winter, while rising oil stocks at the Cushing hub have helped pull crude back to $70 for the first time since October. The issue now: regional winter weather. More cold in the U.S. Northeast -- as widely forecast -- should lift both, and may help reopen an arbitrage for LNG; some frigid Midwest temperatures would benefit gas, but not oil. matthew.robinson@thomsonreuters.com
CLIMATE CHANGE - U.S. President Barack Obama goes to the global Copenhagen climate change summit late in the week, buoyed by a bipartisan framework for a Congressional bill drafted by three U.S. senators. It remains to be seen whether this is the compromise needed to push a long-troubled bill through as early as next year. Democrat John Kerry, Republican Lindsey Graham and independent Joe Lieberman have been working for several weeks to craft legislation that will attract enough votes to pass the Senate. By offering incentives for nuclear power, offshore drilling and clean coal, they hope to win over detractors. The senators said a target to cut U.S. greenhouse emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020, with the help of a cap-and-trade system, was "achievable and reasonable" and in keeping with the proposal Obama is expected to put forward in Copenhagen. A climate bill passed narrowly in the House of Representatives in June.howard.goller@thomsonreuters.com
M&A PACKAGE - Dealmaking is on the rebound. We'll look at the hot sectors, the deal structures, how the IPO market is shaping up, where private equity players are placing their bets, who the movers and shakers are and the outlook for distressed assets and bonuses. We'll also identify the biggest value creators and destroyers among deals in the past decade. All with the latest league tables from Thomson Reuters. The package runs on Friday. christian.plumb@thomsonreuters.com
FINANCIAL REGULATION - Commissioner Bart Chilton told us last month that the CFTC would like to issue its proposal on how to tame excessive speculation in commodity markets by the end of the year, which could mean this week, given the holiday interlude. While some slippage could be expected, we are alert for possible news on position limits -- and possible end-user and hedger exemption. russ.blinch@thomsonreuters.com
ENERGY INVENTORIES - After a year in which natural gas dramatically underperformed oil, the two fuels now appear to be moving toward a more typical balance after an unexpectedly big drop in gas inventories boosted gas prices to their highest since last winter, while rising oil stocks at the Cushing hub have helped pull crude back to $70 for the first time since October. The issue now: regional winter weather. More cold in the U.S. Northeast -- as widely forecast -- should lift both, and may help reopen an arbitrage for LNG; some frigid Midwest temperatures would benefit gas, but not oil. matthew.robinson@thomsonreuters.com
CLIMATE CHANGE - U.S. President Barack Obama goes to the global Copenhagen climate change summit late in the week, buoyed by a bipartisan framework for a Congressional bill drafted by three U.S. senators. It remains to be seen whether this is the compromise needed to push a long-troubled bill through as early as next year. Democrat John Kerry, Republican Lindsey Graham and independent Joe Lieberman have been working for several weeks to craft legislation that will attract enough votes to pass the Senate. By offering incentives for nuclear power, offshore drilling and clean coal, they hope to win over detractors. The senators said a target to cut U.S. greenhouse emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020, with the help of a cap-and-trade system, was "achievable and reasonable" and in keeping with the proposal Obama is expected to put forward in Copenhagen. A climate bill passed narrowly in the House of Representatives in June.howard.goller@thomsonreuters.com
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