Saturday, June 13, 2009

Robust message for North Korea

"Actions must have consequences." That was US President Barack Obama's cry in the wake of North Korea's second underground nuclear test at the end of last month.
Accordingly, the unanimous adoption of this resolution containing tougher sanctions against North Korea represents a significant rebuff for the Pyongyang government.
Russia and China backed the agreed text. North Korea can be in no doubt about the concerted international disapproval for its actions.
Tough words have been accompanied by tougher actions - up to a point.
A battery of measures are set to reinforce the sanctions regime against Pyongyang. There is a total embargo on exports of weaponry from North Korea and significantly expanded controls on arms exports to it.
A new framework is being established for international co-operation to inspect North Korean cargoes for anything associated with weapons of mass destruction.
There are additional financial sanctions too, along with strengthened measures to monitor the whole sanctions regime.
However, much of this still depends upon the actions of individual governments and none more so than North Korea's giant neighbour - China.
'Complex and sensitive'
China's UN ambassador Zhang Yesui took a more nuanced approach to the resolution insisting that it was "an appropriate and balanced response" and that it sent a positive signal to Pyongyang that its nuclear problems had to be resolved by negotiation.
All eyes now will be on Pyongyang's reaction with many analysts fearing it may respond with more bangs - in the form of missile tests - and more bluster.
It is clear that China remains deeply uneasy about the whole business of cargo inspections.
This was, he said, a "complex and sensitive" matter. China is urging countries to approach this in a legal and reasonable way and that there should be no question of using force.
Russia too stressed that this resolution was not offering an opportunity for military action against Pyongyang and that the measures outlined on stopping and searching ships were circumscribed and narrow in scope.
None of this suggests that the new sanctions regime is necessarily going to bite.
But the US and its allies like Japan and South Korea will want to bank the fact that Russia and China are on board.
The diplomatic front at least against Pyongyang is reasonably solid with a clear message for North Korea to return to the negotiating table.
Dangerous times
What is not yet clear is what additional unilateral steps the Obama administration might take against Pyongyang. It could seek to toughen financial restrictions and it might even restore North Korea to the list of countries sponsoring terrorism.
North Korea's actions are clear but its motivation is much less so.
Some analysts argue that North Korea is trying to attract the attention of the new US president to push the whole issue of its nuclear programme higher up Washington's agenda.
Others argue that North Korea's nuclear and missile tests relate more to internal developments, bolstering the public image of the regime and possibly preparing the way for a transfer of power from the ailing, elderly Kim Jong-il to one of his sons.
But these are dangerous and uncertain times.
There are growing fears of a possible incident between North and South Korean ships along the Northern Limit Line - the disputed western maritime extension of the Demilitarized Zone that divides the two Koreas.
All eyes now will be on Pyongyang's reaction with many analysts fearing it may respond with more bangs - in the form of missile tests - and more bluster.

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