Analysis: U.S. pulls back troops in Iraq

U.S. forces are steadily closing or transitioning bases around the country and repositioning manpower to meet a pullback deadline set by the new Strategic Framework Agreement governing continued American presence in the country.
In mainly rural Diyala province, north of Baghdad, only about five of 14 facilities in use at the beginning of the year will remain under U.S. authority come July 1. Gone are bases and outposts such as Hatoon and Tahrir in Baquba, the provincial capital. Remaining are Forward Operating Base War Horse outside Baquba; FOB Normandy, near the major market town of Muqdadiyah; Caldwell, in the eastern portion of the province towards the Iranian border; and Cobra, which is located in an area rife with Arab-Kurd ethnic tension.
In the City of Baghdad about 33 FOBS, COPS (combat operating posts) and Joint Security Stations have been formally handed over to Iraqi Security Forces in recent months, according to the 1st Cavalry Division, the main U.S. force in the Baghdad qada (super country).
Among them: Ford, Shaab and Callahan, which played key roles in last year's battles in and around Sadr City against anti-American Shiite militias and Iranian-backed Special Groups.
Seven more facilities will be handed over to Iraqis by the June 30 deadline.
The exact number of U.S. facilities in Iraq is not immediately available, but there were far more than 200 bases early last year, including Camp Liberty by Baghdad's international airport, which is not being closed or transferred to Iraqi authority.
"It's all part of the security agreement," said Sameer Alhaddad, an official in the Receivership Secretariat in the office of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. "It means Iraqi Security Forces are capable of taking responsibility for the (security of) the whole country."
Under the Strategic Framework hammered out last year in tough negotiations between Washington and Baghdad, U.S. combat forces must pull back from cities, towns and villages in the country by midnight June 30.
U.S. troops will continue to conduct routine operations, but with few exceptions they will be mounted from facilities outside the populated areas and with the advance approval of Iraqi authorities. Those operations must also be conducted in concert with Iraqi Security Forces, which will play the lead role in them.
In the Baghdad qada, the switch out of about 24,000 American troops to bases in what could be called outer suburbs and communities means security in the city itself will be the primary responsibility of 100,000 Iraqi Security Force personnel, which includes paramilitary police, while U.S. troops will guard and control approaches to the city of 6 million.
"Think of it (greater Baghdad) as a doughnut," said 1st Cavalry Division Public Affairs officer Maj. Davic Shoupe. "They will be responsible for the doughnut hole and we'll be responsible for the rest."
The transfer process is far from simple, U.S. officers said. After deciding in consultation with Iraqi authorities on which facilities should be closed or transferred, site inspections take place and inventories are made of equipment and site fixtures to take or leave for the new Iraqi owners. Environmental studies are then conducted and problems encountered -- from oil and chemical spills to sanitation concerns -- are corrected.
"We give it back to them in the condition we'd like to receive it," said Maj. Kevin Wallace, executive officer of the 1st Battalion, 5th Cavalry Regiment.
Wallace's battalion is in charge of the greater Adhamiyah District of Northeast Baghdad, which features both Sunni and Shiite communities. Within its map markings are sectors that featured prominently during the 2007-2008 U.S. surge of forces. Bases such as Ford and Callahan were the "hold" portion of the "clear-hold-rebuild" counterinsurgency strategy. By establishing a permanent presence in communities, terrorists driven out would find it difficult to return and residents would gain a sense of increasing security and stability.
The strategy has apparently worked.
According to U.S. figures, significant acts of violence in greater Baghdad now number about five or six a day. Exact figures for a comparable timeframe last year were not immediately available, but U.S. authorities say the new figures represent a major drop.
In the Adhamiyah District the number of significant acts is one every other day on average, said 1-5's commander, Lt. Col. Scott Jackson.
In Iraq as a whole, significant acts of violence last year totaled 3,258 compared with more than 6,000 the year before.
Jackson said terror and insurgent group cells -- al-Qaida, 1920s Revolutionary Brigade, Jaish al-Mehdi and Special Groups -- remain in his sector but have been severely degraded as the current sigact tally indicates.
He and other American officers, however, believe there may be an uptick -- at least temporarily -- in attacks immediately following the June 30 pullback date as the cells try to challenge government forces, embarrass the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and shake public confidence.
"On the Iraq side of the house (the challenge is) the transition -- the perception of security. Â… If there is an increase (in attacks) people are going to blame it on the transition, and we have to assume there will be some kind of increase," Jackson said.
U.S. and Iraqi military commanders express confidence that any challenges from gunmen can and will be dealt with. Iraqis on the street spoken to by this reporter expressed confidence in the new abilities of their U.S.-mentored security forces, but they are also anxious of Baghdad without a highly visible U.S. footprint.
"I tell them (Iraqis) that the bottom line is that our desire is that you still have Americans on the street," said Jackson. "The changes of 30 June are that the frequency (of U.S. forces on the streets) would decrease and the size of our patrols would decrease.
"Instead of an entire patrol of Americans, now you will see a patrol of Iraqis with some of our soldiers. Our desire is not to abandon our partnership with the government, not to abandon our partnership with the Iraqi forces, not to abandon our partnership with the people."
Under terms of the security agreement, which governs continued U.S. presence in the country and the transition of security responsibilities, all U.S. troops must leave Iraq by Dec. 31, 2011. President Barack Obama, in a separate decision, says all combat troops will be out of Iraq by the end of next August, leaving only advisers and other key support personnel in the country until the date certain specified in the bilateral pact.