Showing posts with label Financial News. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Financial News. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

DTN News - FINANCIAL NEWS: Global Markets Jump After Greek Vote Eases Fears

Defense News: DTN News - FINANCIAL NEWS: Global Markets Jump After Greek Vote Eases Fears
*Global markets jump as Angela Merkel tells election victor Antonis Samaras she is confident Greece will abide by bailout pledges, and world leaders gather in Mexico for the G20.
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources The Globe & Mail
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - June 20, 2012: Asian stock markets were up sharply Monday after elections in Greece eased fears of global financial turmoil, but analysts warned that the economic crisis shaking the 17 nations that use the euro was far from over. Stock markets rejoiced at the narrow victory by Greek conservatives who favour upholding an austerity program that their recession-mired country entered into in exchange for a financial bailout from international lenders.

Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index was up 1.9 per cent at 8,731.57. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6 per cent to 19,548.83. Australia’s S&P/ASX200 added 1.8 per cent to 4,129.20 and South Korea’s Kospi rose 2.1 per cent at 1,897.62.

On Wall Street, Dow Jones industrial average futures were up 62 points on Sunday night, suggesting the market could open higher Monday. The euro rose to $1.2700 (U.S.) from $1.2637 late Friday in New York. The U.S. dollar rose to 79.22 yen from 78.71 yen.

The New Zealand and Australian dollars were also higher. Both currencies typically rise when investors have more appetite for risk. The Australian dollar was trading above $1.01 and the New Zealand dollar was trading above 79 cents.

Masahiro Yamaguchi, a manager at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo, said the perk in Tokyo stocks came from a sense of relief that the worst had been avoided in Greece.

“There’s is a rebound simply because the risks are now reduced,” he said. “There’s a sense that, at least, things are okay for now. The solution is far from basic.”

On Sunday, pro-bailout parties in Greece won enough seats to form a coalition government.

Greece has been dependent on rescue loans to operate since May 2010, after it was shut out of international markets following years of profligate spending and falsifying financial data.

The country is mired in a fifth year of recession, with unemployment spiralling above 22 per cent and tens of thousands of businesses shutting down.

Greece had to agree to austerity measures to get its bailout. Measures included deep spending cuts on everything from health care to education and infrastructure as well as tax hikes and cuts in salaries and pensions. Anger at the measures has sent Greeks into the streets in frequent strikes and protests, some of them violent.

Some analysts said the election results could overstate the willingness of Greeks to embrace austerity.

“Overall, the Greek election result, while welcome, does not imply that the Greek people are embracing the tough reforms tied to the bailout package. It merely meant that fear overruled anger,” analysts at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore wrote in a market commentary.

No one is sure how bad a Greek exit from the euro would have been. Greece would almost have certainly defaulted on its debt, triggering losses for European banks that own its government bonds. The outcome of the election, however tenuous, gives Greece a chance to breathe life into its moribund economy.

“It will be tough, but Greece will survive because I think the tourist industry and the agriculture sector will help it recover from its dire straits right now,” said Francis Lun, managing director of Lyncean Holdings in Hong Kong.

Japanese vehicle makers soared on hopes that Europe, a huge export market, would avoid deepening economic turbulence. Mazda Motor Corp. jumped 4 per cent and Yamaha Motor Co. gained 4.5 per cent.

Steelmakers and shipyards also gained ground. South Korea’s top shipbuilder, Hyundai Heavy Industries, rose 3.1 per cent. Japan’s JFE Holdings Inc. added 4 per cent and Kobe Steel rose 3.3 per cent.

Samsonite International SA rebounded 5.8 per cent after it issued a statement saying its luggage is safe, following a Hong Kong Consumer Council report last week that found carcinogens in the handles of some models, which caused its shares to dive 16 per cent.

But stock market operator Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. fell 2.8 per cent as investors worried a $2.2-billion bid announced last week for the London Metal Exchange was too high.

Benchmark oil for July delivery was up 91 cents to $84.94 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 12 cents to end at $84.03 a barrel in New York on Friday.

  DTN STOCK MARKET


*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources The Globe & Mail
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*This article is being posted from Toronto, Canada By DTN News ~ Defense-Technology News Contact:dtnnews@ymail.com 
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Monday, July 18, 2011

DTN News - U.S. FINANCIAL CRISIS: Obama, lawmakers To Resume Debt Talks

Defense News: DTN News - U.S. FINANCIAL CRISIS: Obama, lawmakers To Resume Debt Talks
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada / WASHINGTON, USA - July 18, 2011: President Barack Obama and congressional leaders will continue to negotiate a possible deficit reduction deal this week to clear the way for congressional Republicans to back an increase in the federal debt ceiling.

While discussions continued over the weekend after the last full negotiating session Thursday, no significant progress has occurred and the chances for a comprehensive deficit deal sought by Obama in coming weeks appear remote.

Without a major deal, Congress would have to focus instead on a smaller agreement to raise the debt ceiling or face the unprecedented situation in 15 days of the government not having enough money to pay all its bills. The debt ceiling has reached its $14.3 trillion legally permitted maximum.
Senate leaders are working on a possible debt ceiling measure, based on a plan that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, unveiled last week. That plan would give Obama power to raise the borrowing limit by a total of $2.5 trillion but also require three congressional votes on the issue before the 2012 general election.

According to Senate aides from both parties, a revised version of the McConnell plan being put together with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, could come up for consideration this week, but only after legislators vote on Republican measures calling for spending cuts, caps on future spending and a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution.

While the GOP measures are expected to fail, the votes would satisfy a Republican desire to get Democrats on the record with their opposition to them.

Leaders from both parties say the McConnell-Reid plan is not the preferred option, but they don't rule it out if efforts to strike a broader deal fail.

"The minimum is I believe the debt will be extended," budget director Jacob Lew told the ABC program "This Week" on Sunday. "... Our efforts over the next days will be to, in addition to that, do as much as we possibly can to make the tough decisions" needed for a broader deal.

Obama warned last week that he could not guarantee older Americans will receive their Social Security checks next month if a deal is not reached. GOP leaders accused the president of resorting to scare tactics.

"This is a different situation than the United States has ever faced," Lew said of a possible default. He refused to discuss how spending might be prioritized, saying, "Once one gets into the business of trying to ask about setting priorities, it misses the fundamental question, which is that it's unacceptable for the United States to be in a place where -- whether it's a Social Security recipient or a soldier or somebody who is just owed money by the government -- can't be paid because we have not done our job."

Republicans complained that they have offered the only concrete proposals to address mounting deficits and federal debt so far, from a House budget proposal earlier this year to the "cut, cap and balance" plan pushed by conservatives that comprises spending cuts, caps on future spending as a percentage of economic production and a balanced budget amendment to the constitution.

"I'm a little frustrated that -- you've heard it in the press conference of the president, you've heard it today from the administration's spokesman -- they are never willing to be specific about the reductions in spending that they would be willing to do," conservative Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Arizona, said Sunday.

"The president always just holds out this idea that, well, if you'll raise taxes, and he is very specific about the taxes he wants to raise, then (he) might be willing to look at cuts elsewhere," Kyl said. "Well, of course, that's just not good enough. So, the point I'm trying to make is when the president says he's willing to compromise, understand why Republican leaders have been pretty reluctant to go along with this deal because we frankly don't know where the spending reductions come, but we do know where the taxes are."

Democrats said the Republican proposals won't pass, and they called for their GOP colleagues to work with them on reaching a compromise that would get the debt ceiling raised and include significant deficit reduction steps to signal markets that the United States is taking serious measures.

"This notion that we somehow have to change the Constitution to do what we were elected to do is just plain wrong," Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Illinois, said on the NBC program "Meet the Press."

"Bottom line is, those who want to push a balanced budget amendment are saying, 'I can't promise you that I won't steal again, but I will vote for the Ten Commandments.' "

Obama evoked compromises of the past in calling Saturday for a commitment to shared sacrifice to break the current impasse on the debt ceiling.

"Let's be honest. Neither party in this town is blameless," the president said in his weekly address. "Both have talked this problem to death without doing enough about it. That's what drives people nuts about Washington."

Obama reiterated his call for higher taxes on the wealthy and reforms to politically popular entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security. He cited budget deals forged by President Ronald Reagan and then-Democratic House Speaker Tip O'Neill as well as President Bill Clinton and former Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich, crediting them with making sacrifices that benefited the common good.

"We are all part of the same country. We are all in this together," Obama said.

Republicans, meanwhile, renewed their call for an amendment to require a balanced budget.

"The only reason this administration doesn't want a constitutional amendment is because they want to keep spending the American people's money," Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah said in the GOP response Saturday. "And the only reason congressional Democrats would refuse to pass it, is because they know the people of this country would rise up and quickly ratify it."

Lew said Sunday that the kind of constitutional change sought by Republicans would be "quite draconian" by imposing strict spending limits rather than simply requiring a balance between revenue and spending.

He called for Republicans to compromise in their opposition to any kind of tax increase, saying, "We need a partner to work with.

"We need to get the job done now," Lew added, noting that credit rating agencies were warning of a downgrade for the United States. "The whole world is watching."

The tense negotiations between top Democrats and Republicans, reflecting core ideological principles on taxes and the size of government, have become a race against the clock. If Washington lacks the money to pay its bills, interest rates could skyrocket and the value of the dollar could decline, among other things.

The seriousness of the situation was reinforced Thursday when a major credit rating agency, Standard and Poor's, said it was placing the United States' sovereign rating on "CreditWatch with negative implications." Moody's Investors Services -- another major rating agency -- said Wednesday that it would put the sterling bond rating of the United States on review for possible downgrade.

Hatch argued that Obama refuses to reform entitlement programs and is pushing "job-killing tax hikes." The six-term senator had his own view of previous deals struck between the two parties.
"We've been down this road before," he said. "In 1990, Congress and the president struck a deficit reduction deal that combined spending cuts with tax increases. Unfortunately, while the tax hikes remained, the spending restraint did not, and our debt has marched higher."

House Republicans show no sign of accepting higher taxes on the rich as part of a so-called "balanced" approach to debt reduction. GOP leaders, who consider tax hikes detrimental to the economy, blasted the president Friday morning for failing to produce what they consider to be a legitimate spending cut plan.

No formal negotiating sessions took place over the weekend. On Saturday, internal discussions continued at the White House a day after a meeting involving Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, Chief of Staff Bill Daley, House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and House Minority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Virginia, said a Democratic source familiar with the debt negotiations and a Republican aide, both on condition of not being identified.

Obama has made it clear he still favors a package that generates savings of approximately $4 trillion over roughly the next decade.

Fallback plans that take major entitlement reform and tax hikes off the table may include between $1.5 trillion and $1.7 trillion in savings previously agreed to in talks led by Vice President Joe Biden.

Administration officials have also discussed extending and possibly expanding the payroll tax cut -- a nod to sagging employment figures -- as well as extending unemployment insurance, according to a Democratic official familiar with the talks.

One of the issues at the heart of the current debate is Obama's call for more tax revenue by allowing tax cuts from the Bush presidency to expire at the end of 2012 for families making more than $250,000. His plan would keep the lower tax rates for Americans who earn less.

Obama noted earlier this week he is not looking to raise any taxes until 2013 or later. In exchange, the president said, he wants to ensure that the current progressive nature of the tax code is maintained, with higher-income Americans assessed higher tax rates.

But resistance to higher taxes is now a bedrock principle for most Republicans, enforced by conservative crusaders such as political activist Grover Norquist. Norquist's group, Americans for Tax Reform, has sponsored a high-profile pledge to oppose any tax increase.

The pledge has been signed by more than 230 House members and 40 senators, almost all of them Republicans.


STORY HIGHLIGHTS

  • *Congress to vote on Republican measures first, aides say
  • *Sen. Kyl says Republicans need specifics from Obama to make a deal
  • *White House budget director refuses to discuss spending priorities under default
  • *The United States must raise its $14.3 trillion debt ceiling by August 2 or risk a default

*Speaking Image - Creation of DTN News ~ Defense Technology News
*This article is being posted from Toronto, Canada By DTN News ~ Defense-Technology News

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Wednesday, March 16, 2011

DTN News - FINANCIAL NEWS / JAPAN EARTHQUAKE: Factbox ~ Economists' Estimate Of Japan Quake Impact

Defense News: DTN News - FINANCIAL NEWS / JAPAN EARTHQUAKE: Factbox ~ Economists' Estimate Of Japan Quake Impact
(NSI News Source Info) TOKYO, Japan - March 16, 2011:

The following is a summary of analysts' assessments of the likely economic impact of the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck the northeast coast of Japan. Most assessments were published before workers were ordered to withdraw briefly from a quake-hit nuclear plant amid fears that the crisis was spiraling out of control.


GOLDMAN SACHS

Economic impact:

* Total economic losses likely to hit 16 trillion yen

* Real GDP likely to decline by 0.5-2 percent in Q2

Comment:

"We based our estimates on three scenarios: (a) our base scenario, with power outages lasting until end-April, as Tokyo Electric Power is currently indicating, (b) outages lasting until end-June, and (c) outages lasting until end-December.

"In our base scenario (a), we estimate that real GDP will contract in the second-quarter, but return to 2 percent growth in the third quarter, once the impact of power outages disappears. Real GDP is pushed down around 0.5 percent in this case.

"In the event power outages are prolonged however, such as cases (b) and (c), we estimate a 2 percent contraction in real GDP in 2Q; and if they were to last until end-December (case c), we estimate GDP would continue declining until the year-end."

SOCIETE GENERALE

Economic impact:

* Economic losses of around 10 trillion yen, or 2 percent of GDP. Fiscal measures responding to the damages will amount to 1-5 trillion yen, or 0.2-1 percent of GDP

Comment:

"Any disaster will diminish the value of assets and is never positive for the economy. The disruption caused by a disaster usually results in lower economic output in that particular month or quarter. However, in the longer term, disasters actually tend to bring a larger growth, rather than a smaller growth, because of the reconstruction demand for infrastructure and replacement demand for consumer durables.

"Consequently, we expect a severe decline in economic output for a month or two, followed by a sharp rebound in the following months. The main risk to 'a trough and a spike' scenario is a significant and prolonged shortage of power, as described earlier."

BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH

Economic impact:

* Expects 2011 GDP growth to be 0.5 percentage points lower

Comment:

"We would expect a good deal of production shifting: for example, prior to the disaster, the auto sector was running about 20 percent below its peak in 2007.

"As a rough estimate, looking back at past disasters, our team in Tokyo expects GDP to drop roughly 0.5 percentage points over the full year relative to their baseline of 1.5 percent. However, the drop is short-lived: they expect a surge in reconstruction to add to growth in the second half and in 2012."

JP MORGAN

Economic impact:

* The bank cut its Q1 and Q2 growth forecasts for Japan's economy to 1.7 percent and 0.5 percent respectively, from previous growth forecasts of 2.2 percent in each quarter; in Q3 and Q4, estimates were raised to 4.0 percent and 2.5 percent from 2.5 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively

* Full-year growth in 2011 was revised down to 1.4 percent from 1.7 percent; 2012 growth estimate revised up to 2.0 percent from 1.8 percent

Comment:

"The economic cost of the disaster will be large. There has been substantial loss to economic resources, and economic activity will be impeded by infrastructure damages (like power outages) in the weeks or months ahead. However, the rebuilding effort will be a significant boost particularly in H2."

IHS GLOBAL

Economic impact:

* Based on preliminary estimates, Japanese real GDP growth could be cut by 0.2 to 0.5 percentage point this year and boosted by 0.2 to 0.5 percentage point next year

* Rough estimates suggest that the negative impact on global growth this year will be negligible -- at most in the 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent range, with a correspondingly small boost to growth next year

Comment:

On the GDP outlook: "If the nuclear crisis turns into a full-blown catastrophe, then the negative effect on growth this year will be much larger.

"The big uncertainty about this disaster (and what sets it apart from other such disasters) is that roughly 10 percent of electricity generation capacity (both nuclear and coal) may be off line for a few months, until oil- and gas-fired plants can ramp up. In the near-term, this could have major negative ramifications for the Japanese industrial sectors; some steel and automotive factories have already been closed."

CREDIT SUISSE

Economic impact:

* Total economic losses could be 14-15 trillion yen, less than half that of the 1995 Kobe earthquake; recovery could cost 4-5 trillion over next three years

* Initial disaster relief could cost 2 trillion yen, mostly funded from contingency reserves so only limited need to increase Japanese government bond issuance

* Cuts 2011 growth rate estimate by 0.2 percentage points but sees a "decent risk" of 0.5-1.0 percentage point hit to Japanese growth this year

CITIGROUP

Economic impact:

* 5-10 trillion yen (up to $122 billion) in damage to housing and infrastructure

* Growth to be slower than previously forecast in H1, but faster in H2 because of reconstruction

* 2011 GDP growth forecast: 1.7 pct (unchanged)

* 2012 GDP growth forecast: 2.3 pct (up from 1.9 pct)

Comment:

"It may be too early to discuss how much damage was done to housing and infrastructure, but we suspect it could match that of the Great Hanshin Earthquake in 1995.

"Some of the damage will likely generate reconstruction demand and bolster activity in the coming months as actual restoration begins."

UBS

Economic impact:

* 2011 GDP growth forecast: 1.4 pct (down from 1.5 pct)

* 2012 GDP growth forecast: 2.5 pct (up from 2.1 pct)

Comment:

Duncan Wooldridge, chief Asia economist at UBS in Hong Kong:

"It remains to be seen, but I would think the impact most likely would be temporary. So you will have a drop in economic growth, but after that, of course, a recovery process.

"Because of disruptions to power supplies and transport, you to tend to find drops in (economic growth). But as that infrastructure is repaired in the months ahead, you get a re-acceleration in economic growth. This is by far the most likely outcome."

BARCLAYS CAPITAL

Economic impact:

* Losses of 15 trillion yen, or 3 pct of GDP

Comment:

"The final damages are expected to exceed those from the Kobe earthquake. As noted above, there is also a need to consider the potentially negative impact on other regions due to the Tohoku region's "trade economy" character.

"Earthquakes not only curb effective demand (eg. consumption, capex) but also lower potential growth through damage to tangible fixed assets and human capital. In terms of the CPI, we believe the impact will be neutral."

NOMURA

Economic impact:

* Power cuts to subtract 0.29 pct from nominal GDP

Comment:

"Based on what occurred after the Kobe earthquake, we think an all-out slump in the Japanese economy caused by the Sendai earthquake is overly pessimistic. However, a V-shaped recovery supported by a rapid upturn in demand driven by rebuilding work in the affected areas is also unlikely.

"We now expect the Japanese economy to take longer than we expected to exit its current soft patch owing to the earthquake and tsunami.

"The consensus forecast on the timing for this exit was Jan-March 2011, while we had projected April-June. However, we now think July-September or possibly October-December is more likely. We expect solid economic recovery to be confirmed in October-December."

STANDARD CHARTERED BANK

Economic impact:

* Rebuilding costs to be at least 1 percent of GDP

* Likely to see negative GDP growth in the first quarter

Comment:

"Provided that the authorities can successfully contain a nuclear-plant crisis, we now expect most economic activity to take a substantial hit in March/April but to rebound in the following months.

"In terms of assessing the damage, this is still a developing situation. It is now feared that energy rationing could continue until the end of April. This, plus damage to supply chains, could hit production even for companies far removed from the scene of the disaster.

"Also, confidence is fragile, and there are fears that the situation at the nuclear plants may deteriorate. If so, this could hit confidence further."

OCBC BANK

Economic impact:

* Reconstruction costs may hit 3 percent of GDP

Comment:

"The Bank of Japan announced to double its asset purchase program on Monday. Meanwhile, it injected a record 15 trillion yen into the banking system to ease liquidity concerns. The additional easing action taken by the BOJ is likely to turn Japan's inflation slightly positive in the near future."

(Compiled by Kevin Yao; editing by Vidya Ranganathan)

Analysis & Opinion

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