DEFENSE NEWS

DTN News - SYRIA UNREST: Syrian Blasts Kill 14, Arab Monitors May Stay

2012-01-21T21:26:00.000-05:00

Defense News: DTN News - SYRIA UNREST: Syrian Blasts Kill 14, Arab Monitors May Stay

Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources Reuters
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 21, 2012: Bombs killed at least 14 prisoners in a Syrian security vehicle on Saturday, and fierce battles erupted between rebels and state forces as the Arab League considered whether to keep monitors in place.
The League looks set to extend its monitoring mission in Syria, given the lack of any Arab or world consensus on how to halt the bloodshed there, an Arab diplomatic source said.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks the 10-month-old revolt against President Bashar al-Assad, said an explosive device planted on a road in the northwestern province of Idlib had killed 15 detainees and wounded dozens.

Syria's state news agency SANA said a "terrorist" group had set off two explosions on the road between the towns of Idlib and Ariha, killing 14 prisoners and wounding 26. Six police guards were also wounded, some critically.

Activists in Idlib offered a very different account, saying the vehicle had actually been carrying dead bodies. They uploaded videos of corpses on the bloodied floors of a hospital morgue, some of which appeared to be decomposing, and said they had come from the vehicle.

Foreign journalists are mostly banned from Syria and such reports are impossible to verify.

Elsewhere in Idlib, clashes broke out between rebels and troops in the city of Maarat Noaman.

"Ten soldiers were trying to desert and their escape sparked clashes between the army and the rebels. One rebel was martyred when he helped give the defectors cover and nine army personnel were killed," the Observatory's head Rami Abdelrahman told Reuters by telephone from Britain.

The Observatory said troops had clashed with army deserters who had joined the insurgency in the town of Jebel al-Zawiya, also in Idlib province, which borders Turkey.

FIGHTING NEAR DAMASCUS

Rebels seized parts of the town of Douma near Damascus before retreating, activists said. Explosions and gunfire rocked the area, a hotbed of revolt after dark.

The fighting began on Saturday afternoon, after security forces killed four people when they fired on a funeral march for a slain protester. Ensuing clashes left dozens wounded, activists said.

Syria accuses its neigbours of failing to combat arms smuggling to insurgents across their borders. On Saturday Syrian forces killed a Lebanese fisherman and wounded another when they seized their boat at sea, the father of the dead man said.

Residents said the Syrians may have suspected the men of smuggling.

Hundreds of people have been killed during the month-long observer mission, despatched to assess Syria's implementation of an Arab peace plan originally agreed in early November.

Sudanese General Mohammed al-Dabi, head of the 165-strong monitoring team, was due in Cairo on Saturday to submit his report for a League committee on Syria to consider on Sunday.

Syria is keen to avoid tougher action by the Arab League or the United Nations. It has tried to show it is complying with the plan, which demands a halt to killings, a military pullout from the streets, the release of detainees, access for the monitors and the media, and dialogue with opposition groups.

Critics say the Arab monitors have only given Assad diplomatic cover to pursue a bloody crackdown on his opponents.

The opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) told Reuters it had formally asked the League to refer the Syrian crisis to the U.N. Security Council.

But an Arab source said the League was most likely planning only to extend the mission's mandate: "Yes, there is not complete satisfaction with Syria's cooperation with the monitoring mission. But in the absence of any international plan to deal with Syria, the best option is for the monitors to stay.

This month the Syrian authorities have freed hundreds of detainees, announced an amnesty, struck a ceasefire deal with armed rebels in one town, allowed the Arab observers into some trouble spots and admitted a gaggle of foreign journalists.

"TERRORISTS"

Assad also promised political reforms, while vowing iron-fisted treatment of the "terrorists" trying to topple him.

Burhan Ghalioun, head of the SNC, was in the Egyptian capital for meetings with opposition colleagues and Arab League officials.

The group said in a statement he would ask for the case to go to the Security Council in order to get a resolution imposing a no-fly zone or safe zone.

Western powers have failed to overcome Chinese and Russian opposition to any Security Council resolution condemning Syria or imposing sanctions.

The United States and the European Union have toughened their own punitive measures, but have shown no desire to mount a Libya-style military intervention to help Assad's opponents, who include both armed insurgents and peaceful protesters.

Washington warned on Friday that it might soon close its embassy in Syria due to worsening security conditions and said it believed Assad no longer had full control of the country.

U.S. concern about the safety of its mission in Damascus, which was attacked by a pro-Assad crowd in July, intensified after three deadly blasts in the Syrian capital in recent weeks, blamed by Syrian authorities on al-Qaeda suicide bombers.

Closing the embassy would not amount to cutting diplomatic ties, but would reduce direct U.S. contacts with Damascus.

A White House spokesman said Assad's fall was "inevitable" and demanded he halt violence against protesters in which the United Nations says more than 5,000 people have died since March. Syria says 2,000 security personnel have been killed. (Writing by Alistair Lyon and Erika Solomon; editing by Andrew Roche)

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources Reuters
*Speaking Image - Creation of DTN News ~ Defense Technology News
*This article is being posted from Toronto, Canada By DTN News ~ Defense-Technology News Contact:dtnnews@ymail.com
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2012-01-21T11:28:00.004-05:00

Defense News: DTN News - DEFENSE NEWS: Panetta~ U.S. Military Best In World, But Threats Remain
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Army Sgt. 1st Class Tyrone C. Marshall Jr. - American Forces Press Service
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 21, 2012: The U.S. military is the world’s best and it’s on the right path to face the challenges ahead, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said here today.

Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta speaks to military members and civilian workers at the Joint Strike Fighter hangar at Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Md., Jan. 20, 2012. Panetta toured several facilities related to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which is in its test phases at the base. DOD photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo
(Click photo for screen-resolution image);high-resolution image available.

Speaking to a crowd of service members, civilians and local leaders at a town hall meeting, Panetta said the military “has to be able to make that turn as we head into the future.”

“We're at a point, as you know, where the Iraq mission was brought to an end, and it's now clearly up to the Iraqi people, to the Iraqi leaders to make sure they stay on the right track,” he said. “That was the whole point of the mission, was to make Iraq be able to govern and secure itself.”

The defense secretary also cited U.S., coalition and Afghan progress made in Afghanistan and NATO’s success in helping to topple a dictator in Libya.

“In Afghanistan, we are making good progress there in transitioning to Afghan control and security, and we remain committed to making sure that happens,” Panetta said. “In Libya, we had a successful NATO mission that helped bring down Gadhafi and return Libya to the Libyan people.”

Panetta noted the U.S. military has “significantly impacted” al-Qaida operations. Al-Qaida chieftain Osama bin Laden was killed in May 2011 in Pakistan by U.S. troops.

“Its leadership is decimated,” Panetta said of al-Qaida. “It doesn't have the ability to put command and control together to make the kind of plans for the kind of attacks we saw on 9/11.

“We have successfully gone after their leadership, and it's not just bin Laden, but a number of leaders,” he continued. “But we need to continue that pressure.

“We need to keep going after them wherever they go, whether it's Yemen or Somalia or North Africa,” he added. “We need to continue the pressure on them. But we are working to significantly weaken their capability. We've been good at it.”

The defense secretary noted that “we’re moving in the right direction” by virtue of the men and women in uniform doing “everything we've asked them to do.”

Panetta also said the current drawdown isn’t like previous drawdowns following World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War or the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“This isn't like drawdowns in the past … when the potential enemy or the enemy that we were confronting, you know, was disabled and in some way rendered ineffective,” he said. “We're still confronting a number of threats in the world.”

“We're still fighting a war in Afghanistan,” Panetta said. “We're facing threats from North Korea. We're facing threats from Iran. We continue to face threats from the proliferation of nuclear weapons, weapons of mass destruction.”

The defense secretary also noted threats from “rising powers” in Asia, continuing turmoil in the Middle East, and in the cyber world where “the battlefields of the future could very well be in cyber.”

“So at a time when we're at that turning point, at a time when we're facing the budget challenges that we're facing, we still have to be strong to confront the threats that we face in the world,” Panetta said. “And so that's been the challenge.”

After Congress mandated a reduction of $487 billion in the defense budget over the next 10 years, Panetta said he saw it as an “opportunity to shape the defense system we need for the future.”

“Number one, we are and have to remain, the strongest military in the world,” he said. “We are not going to back off from our position of being the strongest military. If we're going to confront those threats, if we're going to be a world leader, we have got to maintain our military power.”

Panetta was also adamant about not hollowing out the force which, he said, is a mistake “we’ve made in the past.”

“Every one of those drawdowns I talked about, there were cuts across the board,” he said. “They took big numbers, cut everything across the board, weakened everything across the board … we are not going to do that.”

The defense secretary noted he’d looked at every budget area where savings, efficiencies and balance can be achieved.

Despite current fiscal belt-tightening, the nation ““cannot break faith with those that have served, men and women who've deployed time and time and time again to the war zone, who've been promised and committed to certain benefits,” Panetta said.

“We have got to maintain faith with them,” he added, “at the same time that, obviously, we've got to deal with growing costs in the future."

The nation’s national defense strategy, Panetta added, always depends upon the quality of its service members.

“And thank God we have the very best fighting men and women in the world,” he said. “And thank God we have the American people that are supportive of making sure that we do everything possible to reach that American dream of giving our kids a better life.”

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable source By Army Sgt. 1st Class Tyrone C. Marshall Jr. - American Forces Press Service
*Speaking Image - Creation of DTN News ~ Defense Technology News
*This article is being posted from Toronto, Canada By DTN News ~ Defense-Technology News Contact:dtnnews@ymail.com
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DTN News - DEFENSE NEWS: Panetta Lifts F-35 Fighter Variant Probation

2012-01-21T11:23:00.000-05:00

Defense News: DTN News - DEFENSE NEWS: Panetta Lifts F-35 Fighter Variant Probation
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Army Sgt. 1st Class Tyrone C. Marshall Jr. - American Forces Press Service
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 21, 2012: Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta announced today he’s lifted probation from the Short Takeoff, Vertical Landing variant of the fifth generation F-35 Lightning II joint strike fighter which is absolutely vital to maintaining air superiority.

Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta and U.S. Rep. Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland look at the cockpit of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter with Navy Capt. Erik "Rock" Etz on Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Md., Jan. 20, 2012. Panetta and Hoyer toured several facilities related to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which is in its test phases at the base. DOD photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo
(Click photo for screen-resolution image);high-resolution image available.

Speaking during a town hall-style meeting here, the defense secretary discussed the latest development in the progress of the joint strike fighter program as service members, politicians and the civilian workforce listened.

“Early in 2011 DOD was compelled to put [the Short Takeoff and Vertical Landing] … on probation,” he said.

“Over the course of last year, you here at Pax River helped make an incredible difference by completing tremendous amounts of STOVL testing,” Panetta noted. “You demonstrated that we've made real progress towards fixing some of the known problems that we had with STOVL.”

Panetta lauded the joint strike fighter’s workforce at NAS Patuxent River for their efforts to bring the STOVL variant up to the standards of the two other existing versions of the F-35, the Conventional Takeoff and Landing and Carrier Variant.

“We now believe that because of your work, that the STOVL variant is demonstrating the kind of performance and maturity that is in line with the other two variants of the JSF,” Panetta said.

“As a result of your hard work and the hard work of JSF's government and industry team … the STOVL variant has made, I believe and all of us believe, sufficient progress so that as of today, I am lifting the STOVL probation,” he announced.

Panetta commended the crowd for their hard work, but cautioned that the JSF program still has more work to do. “We've got a long way to go with the JSF testing, and it's obviously not out of the woods yet,” he said.

“But I am confident that if we continue to do the hard work necessary … that both the Carrier and the STOVL Variant are going to be ready for operations and are going to be ready for doing the work that they have to do, which is to help protect this country,” Panetta said.

“I want you all to know that as secretary of defense, my department is committed to the development of the F-35,” he said. “It's absolutely critical … that we get it right. And that's why you're here. The developmental testing that's going on here will ensure that we get this right.”

Marine Corps Commandant Gen. James F. Amos called Panetta’s decision to lift the probation of the F-35B “hard-earned.”

“Secretary Panetta’s decision to take the F-35B Lightning II Short Takeoff, Vertical Landing variant off probation was a hard-earned and rewarding announcement for the entire DOD/industry team that worked very hard last year,” he said.

“Successful F-35B performance ashore and at sea has very positively advanced the state of demonstrated capability in 2011,” Amos said. “The positive momentum generated during 2011 will continue as testing proceeds, production aircraft are delivered, and fleet training begins in 2012.”

Panetta said it is important that the U.S. military maintains its technological edge into the future.

“That's where we have to be,” he said. “We're going to have a strong defense; we have got to be there.”

Panetta praised the capabilities of Patuxent’s workforce.

“Because of you, because of the very unique testing and capabilities that are offered here, we are able to maintain that technological edge,” Panetta said. “And I want to thank you again for your dedication, for your commitment, for your great skills.”

Panetta lauded the Patuxent River installation calling it “a very unique facility” and “a national treasure” that is important to maintain.

“These are world-class facilities … that [are] important to our military, important to our men and women in uniform who have to put their lives on the line, and it's important to our national security,” Panetta said.

“Please accept my deepest thanks for your work and dedication,” he said. “I couldn't do it without you.”

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Army Sgt. 1st Class Tyrone C. Marshall Jr. - American Forces Press Service
*Speaking Image - Creation of DTN News ~ Defense Technology News
*This article is being posted from Toronto, Canada By DTN News ~ Defense-Technology News Contact:dtnnews@ymail.com
©COPYRIGHT (C) DTN NEWS DEFENSE-TECHNOLOGY NEWS

DTN News: Happy Chinese New Year ~ Year Of The Dragon

2012-01-20T17:50:00.000-05:00

Defense News: DTN News: Happy Chinese New Year ~ Year Of The Dragon
Source: DTN News By Roger Smith
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 20, 2012: We Wish All our Readers and Viewers a Happy Chinese New Year with Great Prosperity and Good Luck in the Year of the Dragon!

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith
*Speaking Image - Creation of DTN News ~ Defense Technology News
*This article is being posted from Toronto, Canada By DTN News ~ Defense-Technology News Contact:dtnnews@ymail.com
©COPYRIGHT (C) DTN NEWS DEFENSE-TECHNOLOGY NEWS

DTN News - WIKILEAKS NEWS: Various Articles From International Media Originated From Wikileaks For January 19, 2012

2012-01-19T20:27:00.001-05:00

Defense News: DTN News - WIKILEAKS NEWS: Various Articles From International Media Originated From Wikileaks For January 19, 2012

Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith

(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 19, 2012: The international non-profit organization Wikileaks became world renown as a whistleblower publishing submissions of private, secret and classified media from anonymous news sources, news leaks and whistleblowers.

WikiLeaks states that its "primary interest is in exposing oppressive regimes in Asia, the former Soviet bloc, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, but we also expect to be of assistance to people of all regions who wish to reveal unethical behaviour in their governments and corporations".

Here are the news on various subjects on Wikileaks by global media/web/blogs and reactions respectively for DTN News readers and viewers;

2nd officer favors court-martial in WikiLeaks case
USA TODAY
Manning allegedly gave more than 700000 secret US documents to the anti-secrecy website WikiLeaks for publication. Prosecutors say WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange collaborated with Manning. Defense lawyers say Manning was clearly a troubled young ...
See all stories on this topic »

USA TODAY

WikiLeaks or Sea Shepherd: who are the outlaw heroes in the age of modern ...
The Conversation
Wikileaks deals with human society and uses computer technology to expose what it sees as wrongs by governments. Sea Shepherd deals with marine wildlife and uses direct action to expose what it sees as wrongs by governments. But urbane, well-spoken ...
See all stories on this topic »

Every Bidder Bailed on the WikiLeaks Truck
The Atlantic Wire
Remember how the guy who owns the WikiLeaks truck was going to sell it and use the money to start building a whole fleet of WikiLeaks vehicles? Well, the eBay sale ended last week and all the bidders backed out at the last minute, so that never ...
See all stories on this topic »

The Atlantic Wire

Chase Madar: Accusing Wikileaks of Murder
OpEdNews
Pfc. Manning, you will remember, is the young soldier who is soon to be court-martialed for passing some 750000 military and diplomatic documents, a large chunk of them classified, to the websiteWikiLeaks. Among those leaks, there was indeed some ...
See all stories on this topic »Army officer makes 2nd recommendation for court-martial of soldier charged in ...
Washington Post
WASHINGTON — Army officer makes 2nd recommendation for court-martial of soldier charged inWikiLeaks case Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
See all stories on this topic »Michael Hastings Talks Assange, WikiLeaks with Charlie Rose
RollingStone.com (blog)
... his in-depth Julian Assange interview, his new book, The Operators, and the 2010 firing of Gen. Stanley McChyrstal, after Hastings profiled him in Rolling Stone. Bonus points if you can tell how Rose and co-hosts really feel about Assange/WikiLeaks.
See all stories on this topic »Julian Assange Blasts New York Times And Bill Keller In Rolling Stone Profile
Huffington Post
In a profile with Rolling Stone released on Wednesday, Assange sat down with contributing editor Michael Hastings to discuss the Wikileaks scandal and his upcoming extradition trial in early February. Assange, who founded the whistleblower website ...
See all stories on this topic »The constant drip, drip, drip of WikiLeaks
Kyiv Post (subscription)
New revelations by whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks show that US officials shared concerns that many have had about Energy Minister Yuriy Boyko, the man once again representing Ukraine in important negotiations with Russia on natural gas supplies. ...
See all stories on this topic »US cables show skepticism, warnings about Yanukovych
Kyiv Post
The cables, recently released by whistleblower website WikiLeaks, give an insight into the inner workings of Ukraine's political and business world from a string of top Ukrainian officials, opposition figures, oligarch businessmen and civil society ...
See all stories on this topic »

Choking off free speech on the web
The Hindu
The attempt to introduce strong-arm measures must be viewed against the backdrop of a persistent effort in the US to use judicial processes to access personal data about individuals abroad using services such as Twitter, in the wake of the WikiLeaks ...
See all stories on this topic »

The Hindu

Chase Madar: Accusing WikiLeaks of murder — War in Context
By TomDispatch
Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta called it “utterly deplorable.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed “total dismay.” General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, was “deeply disturbed” that the actions in question would ...
War in Context

Daily Kos: Chase Madar: Accusing Wikileaks of Murder
By rss@dailykos.com (TomDispatch)
The troves of documents leaked to the website WikiLeaks, for which Army Pfc. Bradley Manning has been charged, certainly caused a stir, but the carnage in them was, in truth, easily available without access to a single secret document.
Iraq

WikiLeaks' 16th minute | Jack Shafer
After the diplomatic cable stories petered out, so did WikiLeaks. What Assange's spree demonstrates is the extreme dependency of leakers on strong institutions ...
blogs.reuters.com/jackshafer/2012/01/.../wikileaks-16th-minut...

2nd officer favors court-martial in WikiLeaks case – USATODAY.com
An analyst charged in the biggest leak of classified information in U.S. history is a step closer to a general court-martial.
www.usatoday.com/news/.../1?...

DTN News - ISLAMIC MILITANTS: A Hezbollah Threat In Thailand?

2012-01-19T13:41:00.001-05:00

Defense News: DTN News - ISLAMIC MILITANTS: A Hezbollah Threat In Thailand?

Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources Stratfor

(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 19, 2012: On Jan. 12, Thai authorities arrested a man they say was a member of the Lebanon-based Shiite militant group Hezbollah who was plotting an attack in Bangkok. In uncovering the plot, Thai police cite cooperation with the United States and Israel going back to December 2011. Bangkok is indeed a target-rich environment with a history of terrorist attacks, but today Hezbollah and other militant and criminal groups rely on the city as more of a business hub than anything else. If Hezbollah or some other transnational militant group were to carry out an attack in the city, it would have to be for a compelling reason that outweighed the costs.

The suspect was identified as Atris Hussein, who was born in Lebanon but acquired Swedish citizenship and a passport after marrying a Swedish woman in 1996. Hussein was arrested on immigration charges as he was trying to board a plane at Suvarnabhumi airport, Bangkok's main international airport. Police said another suspect is still at large and possibly already out of the country. Hussein's arrest on Jan. 12 was followed by a statement the next day from the U.S. Embassy warning U.S. citizens in Bangkok of the potential foreign terrorist threat in the country and encouraging them to avoid tourist areas. Other countries, including the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and Israel, issued similar warnings. Thai police have responded by increasing security in tourist areas like Bangkok's Khao San Road and the island of Phuket.

Then, on Jan. 16, some 200 Thai police officers searched a three-story commercial building in a town along the coast 32 kilometers (about 20 miles) southwest of Bangkok. Information on the location and contents of the building was said to have been provided by Hussein after two days in custody. On the second floor of the building, officers found 4,380 kilograms (about 10,000 pounds) of urea-based fertilizer and 38 liters (about 10 gallons) of liquid ammonium nitrate -- enough materials to construct several truck bombs comparable to the one detonated at the Marriott hotel in Islamabad in 2008. Urea fertilizer can be used to manufacture the improvised explosive mixture urea nitrate, which was the main charge used in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. The compound is also frequently used in improvised explosive devices in Iraq and to some extent in Afghanistan. On the ground floor of the same building, police found reams of printing paper and 400 electric table fans in cardboard boxes.

The following day, a Bangkok court charged Hussein with illegal possession of explosive materials. As in many other countries, a permit is required for handling such large amounts of fertilizer in Thailand.

Since Hussein's arrest and the police raid, a flurry of statements from Thai authorities have given contradictory accounts of what happened. Gen. Yuthasak Sasiprapha, Thailand's defense minister, seemed comfortable connecting the U.S. and Israeli warnings to the arrest and seizure, stating that Hussein and other conspirators were linked to Hezbollah and had chosen Bangkok as part of a plan to retaliate against Israel. The general speculated that the Israeli Embassy, synagogues, tour companies and kosher restaurants could be targeted.

The defense minister's speculations are logical. In 2010, Thailand received 120,000 Jewish tourists, and Bangkok itself has a large Jewish community, complete with a Chabad house (a Jewish cultural center and one of the targets in the 2008 Mumbai attacks). According to its website, the Israeli Embassy is located in a commercial office building with (from what we can tell from photographs) relatively little perimeter security. Hundreds of thousands of Americans also visit Thailand each year. At the same time, the United States and Israel are engaged in a covert war with Iran that has most recently seen the assassination of an Iranian scientist allegedly involved in the country's nuclear program. Since Hezbollah has been considered a proxy of Iran, the United States and Israel have long anticipated reprisal attacks from Iran via Hezbollah against U.S. or Israeli targets around the world.

While there are certainly plenty of U.S., Jewish and Israeli targets in Thailand in general and Bangkok in particular, other officials have given different accounts of the alleged plot that add more nuance. According to National Police Chief Priewpan Damapong, Hussein insisted that the materials seized were not intended for attacks in Thailand but were going to be transported to a yet-to-be-named third country (a Stratfor source has cited the Philippines as a logical destination). He also allegedly told authorities that, although he was a member of Hezbollah, he was not a member of the group's militant arm. A Hezbollah official in Beirut, Ghaleb Abu Zainab, told the Lebanese Broadcasting Corp. that Hussein was not a Hezbollah member, while Stratfor sources have told us that he was. Our sources also have confirmed Hussein's reported confession to police that he was on the business side of things -- likely involved in procurement and logistics -- rather than the militant side, which involves such things as bombmaking or operational planning. As a Swedish passport holder, Hussein would have much more access to business connections, so it makes sense that Hezbollah would want to compartmentalize his skills.

Most other official statements since Gen. Sasiprapha's have focused on softening the threat and mitigating the damage done to Thailand's tourism industry. Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has called on the United States to revoke its warning, saying it will damage the country if it is prolonged. Hence, it is not surprising that tidbits released from Hussein's purported interrogation have moved the spotlight away from the domestic threat and focused more on targets abroad.

The historical record shows ample precedent for attacks by foreign extremists in Bangkok. In 1972, members of Black September took over the Israeli Embassy in Bangkok and held diplomats hostage there for 18 hours. In 1988, Hezbollah gunmen hijacked Kuwait Airways Flight 422, which was departing Bangkok for Kuwait City, in an effort to coerce the Kuwaiti government to release the "al-Dawa 17," a group of Shiite militants being held in Kuwait. And in 1994, a truck laden with explosives was en route to attack either the U.S. or Israeli Embassy (the investigation did not yield conclusive results) when a traffic accident disrupted the plot. Bangkok has long been on the map for terrorist operational planners.

During the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, Hezbollah and other groups conducted dozens of attacks targeting Jews, Israel and Israel's allies around the world. However, over the past decade, Hezbollah has become a more serious political party in Lebanon, and while its international network is still in place, its activities are increasingly focusing on illicit business ventures rather than terrorist attacks. The shell corporations and drug-smuggling networks that for years provided the means to fund ideological terrorist operations have, in many ways, become the end itself. Hezbollah members who have grown rich off the international network are more interested in spending the cash from the network and building up political patronage at home than in provoking powerful enemies abroad. For example, Bangkok is a hub for acquiring counterfeit documents, which are a lucrative commodity around the world and part of Hezbollah's criminal enterprise. Conducting an attack in Bangkok would likely disrupt a node in the network and ultimately affect the group's bottom line.

Thus, Hezbollah's profile and set of interests support Hussein's reported claims that the bombmaking materials that police found were being moved out of the country and were not intended for use in Bangkok or other tourist locations in Thailand.

Other details from the case support this scenario. The fertilizer was to be hidden in the 400 table fan boxes found in the same building, a move conducive to smuggling the fertilizer, not constructing explosive devices. The sheer amount of fertilizer (nearly 5 tons) is a wholesale amount. The largest vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in recent history have contained about a ton of fertilizer. The device used in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing consisted of about 1,300 pounds of urea nitrate. Constructing and delivering bombs larger than that tends to create technical and logistical hitches. It is much more likely that such a large amount of fertilizer would be meant for multiple smaller or medium-sized devices.

While urea-based fertilizer and ammonium nitrate are key ingredients for the main charge of a VBIED, many more materials are required to make it a viable device, including nitric acid, which must be mixed with urea-based fertilizer to make urea nitrate. (Urea nitrate is highly corrosive and has typically been mixed and held in plastic industrial chemical drums. While cardboard boxes would be fine for holding the urea-based fertilizer, they certainly would not be heavy-duty enough to contain the urea nitrate mixture.) In the Bangkok case, there has been no mention of other important bombmaking components such as fuses, timing mechanisms or detonating charges or of a competent bombmaker to put it all together.

In other words, while some of the materials to make a bomb were present in the commercial building that police raided, there was no viable device there. Nor has there been any mention of weapons such as rifles, handguns or grenades, which are often (although certainly not always) involved in terrorist attacks. Some media sources alleged that Hussein was plotting a "Mumbai-like" attack, which would have required a stash of automatic rifles, ordnance, communication devices and other tactical tools that have yet to surface.

Just as Bangkok is an attractive business hub in Southeast Asia for legitimate businessmen, it is also an attractive hub for illicit businessmen. In 2008, Thai police arrested Russian arms smuggler Viktor Bout after agents from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, posing as members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia guerrilla group trying to negotiate a deal to buy weapons, incriminated Bout during a meeting in Bangkok. It appears that Hussein's role in this case would have been an administrative one similar to Bout's: sourcing the fertilizer, finding a place to stockpile it and concealing it in innocent-looking fan boxes. This would not make him any less guilty of assisting a militant group, but it would deflate the theory that Hezbollah was plotting to use this material in an immediate attack in Bangkok.

This is not to say that Hezbollah or some other militant group will not conduct an attack in Bangkok in the future. But it would take a lot to convince group leaders that the financial pain of an attack in the city would be worth the ideological gain. And the recent alleged plot should remind investigators and policymakers to remember the financial bottom line as well as the ideological bottom line when assessing future terrorist threats.

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources Stratfor

*Speaking Image - Creation of DTN News ~ Defense Technology News

*This article is being posted from Toronto, Canada By DTN News ~ Defense-Technology News Contact:dtnnews@ymail.com

©COPYRIGHT (C) DTN NEWS DEFENSE-TECHNOLOGY NEWS

DTN News - CHINA DEFENSE NEWS: How China Is Advancing Its Military Reach

2012-01-19T06:45:00.001-05:00

Defense News: DTN News - CHINA DEFENSE NEWS: How China Is Advancing Its Military Reach
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources BBC News
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 19, 2012: As the US shifts its focus to Asia, Alexander Neill, head of the Asia Security Programme at the Royal United Services Institute, sets out the Chinese military advances challenging the regional balance.

At the Pentagon recently, US President Barack Obama announced deep cuts to the US military and set out a shift in attention towards the Asia-Pacific region, in a thinly-veiled message to China.

Despite a narrative of peaceful intent, China's leaders have struggled to reassure the US over the direction of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Both countries admit that their military dialogue falls well behind other aspects of the relationship.

So the shift has brought renewed scrutiny of the PLA's latest capabilities against US dominance in the Pacific.

In recent years the PLA has demonstrated impressive new capabilities at sea and in space, aimed at showcasing the success of its modernisation effort.

The obvious message is to deliver a powerful warning if Taiwan were to declare formal independence.

But Pentagon planners are now concerned that the Taiwan contingency has been eclipsed by China's broader maritime territorial claims and demands for more international space to protect the arteries feeding China's growth.

'Unrestricted warfare'

China is developing a range of capabilities linked to the space and cyber domain in order to sidestep the overwhelming might of the US military in the Pacific region. The PLA calls this fighting "local wars under informationised conditions".

China took the first step towards a space station when it launched the Tiangong 1 module

China recognised almost two decades ago that in the mid-term the PLA could be no match for US conventional forces. So it began working on what was dubbed "unrestricted warfare" - combining multiple methods to defeat a superior opponent.

At the same time party leaders launched adventurous civilian acquisition projects in the high-tech domain to increase Chinese competitiveness and to boost indigenous production capabilities.

The PLA has been running military projects mirroring these civilian acquisition ventures. Sometimes involving dual-use technologies, the military and civilian strands have often been indistinguishable.

China's space programme is a case in point. The recent successful docking manoeuvre between a Shenzhou module and the Tiangong Space station is as much a triumph for the PLA as it is for China's civilian space agency.

Space theatre

Should the US ever intervene in a cross-strait clash or challenge China's maritime claims, Beijing would employ a pre-emptive "sea denial" strategy alongside its conventional operations - preventing US battle carrier groups operating in or near its claimed territorial waters.

Its submarine-launched ballistic and cruise missiles are now a lethal force. China's long-range nuclear weapons systems have also undergone significant upgrades and its strategic rocket force, the Second Artillery Corps, is very much the pride of the PLA.

One of the most pressing concerns for the US navy is the threat posed by a "carrier killer" anti-ship missile with enhanced targeting capabilities facilitated from space. China very recently launched its own Beidou Positioning System, challenging the monopoly of the US Global Positioning System (GPS).

One of the PLA's most sensitive advances has been the secret deployment and testing of advanced anti-satellite (ASAT) and Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) weapons systems.

Two years ago, China successfully intercepted one of its own ballistic missiles as it streaked through space. This test coincided with the Pentagon's sale of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) Patriot systems to Taiwan.

Some experts believe a Chinese ASAT campaign against a careful selected group of US satellites could have catastrophic effect on the US military.

This capability, combined with the potential for China to develop its own Ballistic Missile Defence umbrella, suggests that the space domain will be a new theatre for US-China rivalry.

Chinese ASAT capabilities are not exclusively reserved for "kill vehicles", like the one which obliterated an ageing Chinese weather satellite in 2007.

It is now believed that the successful 2007 "kill" was in fact the third test in a series. Previous tests had demonstrated an ability to manoeuvre in proximity to targeted satellites.

This would suggest that China has experimented with techniques which could be used for "space mining", where mines or mini-satellites armed with jamming technologies could be placed within the orbits of an opponent's spacecraft.

Carrier group

In addition to its "sea denial" and space warfare strategies, China is also expanding its conventional capabilities.

The PLA Air Force in recent years has extended its ability for offshore operations, enhancing an offensive capability. It is planning an overhaul of its ageing fleet with the deployment of over 3,000 new aircraft.

China first aircraft carrier began sea trials in 2011

For the most part China has relied on copying Russian fighter technology. However, the roll-out of the Chengdu J-20 Stealth fighter prototype raised eyebrows last year, carefully timed to coincide with a visit by the US defence secretary.

There have been some very significant developments in the deployment of Chinese submarines in recent years. Beijing possesses 10 Russian-built ultra-quiet Kilo class submarines possibly armed with 200km-range anti-ship cruise missiles.

Since 2006, when a Chinese submarine surfaced undetected within torpedo range of the US aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk, China's submarine force has regularly marauded the US Navy and its allies in the Pacific.

It is thought that China plans to build three aircraft carrier battle groups, each armed with 40 fighters, up to eight warships, three nuclear-powered attack submarines and a number of support vessels. The PLA Navy's retrofitted Varyag carrier, currently under sea-trials, will serve as a training platform.

Even if the aircraft carrier would likely be a prestige piece and more directed at Chinese domestic pride, the prospect of a Chinese aircraft carrier will certainly cause ripples for the broader East Asian naval balance.

Uncertain factors

While much attention has been paid to the breakneck speed of Chinese military modernisation over the last decade, the events of 9/11 and the subsequent campaigns in the Middle East and Afghanistan provided a window of opportunity for China to accelerate development.

In some cases there may have been, quite literally, windfalls for the PLA. There is speculation that China acquired undamaged Tomahawk cruise missile components in the early stages of the Afghanistan campaign a decade ago.

When US special forces failed to completely destroy one of their stealth helicopters during Operation Geronimo, Pakistan's military may have allowed PLA counterparts to inspect the tail rotor.

The PLA must be congratulating itself on the impressive array of weaponry which has tilted the balance in the Taiwan Strait in its favour.

China's new-found capabilities combined with the opaque nature of its military modernisation create a formula for mistrust with the US.

There are perhaps three factors for uncertainty. Firstly, the Chinese military's confidence in its new equipment could lead to an overestimation of its capability as an emerging great power.

Secondly, the Chinese leadership could underestimate its ability to control an unexpected escalation of hostilities in the Pacific.

Finally, the domestic political factor - the PLA's external behaviour could become a reaction to internal nationalistic sentiment, instability or faction fighting as Beijing prepares for the fifth generation leadership handover this year.

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources BBC News
*Speaking Image - Creation of DTN News ~ Defense Technology News
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DTN News - WHITE HOUSE NEWS: Obama Receives Baseball Jersey Honoring 2011 World Series Champions - The St. Louis Cardinals At White House

2012-01-18T22:12:00.002-05:00

Defense News: DTN News - WHITE HOUSE NEWS: Obama Receives Baseball Jersey Honoring 2011 World Series Champions - The St. Louis Cardinals At White House
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources Pictures of The Days
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 18, 2012: U.S. President Barack Obama (C) holds up a uniform given to him by the 2011 Major League Baseball World Series champions St. Louis Cardinals while posing for photographs with the team and first lady Michelle Obama at the White House January 17, 2012 in Washington, DC. Noticably absent from the congratulatory event are the team's former 1st baseman Albert Pujols and former manager Tony La Russa.

The Cardinal's visit to Washington will include a stop at Walter Reed Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, to visit with patients and their families.

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources Pictures of The Days
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DTN News - BOEING DEFENSE NEWS: 4th Boeing Wideband Global SATCOM Satellite Ready For Liftoff

2012-01-18T10:23:00.000-05:00

Defense News: DTN News - BOEING DEFENSE NEWS: 4th Boeing Wideband Global SATCOM Satellite Ready For Liftoff

>WGS-4 scheduled for Jan. 19 launch from Cape Canaveral
>Satellite 1st in Block II series that includes new radio frequency bypass
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources Boeing
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 18, 2012: Boeing [NYSE: BA] today announced that the fourth Wideband Global SATCOM (WGS) satellite the company is delivering to the U.S. Air Force has successfully completed prelaunch testing and is ready for launch. WGS-4, the first spacecraft in the program's upgraded Block II series, is scheduled to launch at 7:38 p.m. Eastern time on Jan. 19 aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta IV vehicle from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla.

The Block II satellites (WGS 4-6) add a switchable radio frequency bypass that supports the transmission of airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance imagery at data rates approximately three times greater than those currently available on Block I satellites.

"This launch will be another important step in advancing communications capabilities for U.S. warfighters and allies around the world," said Craig Cooning, vice president and general manager of Boeing Space & Intelligence Systems. "When it enters service, WGS-4 will join three other WGS satellites that deliver critical communications to help warfighters execute missions with greater safety and efficiency."

Boeing built and tested the WGS-4 spacecraft at its manufacturing facility in El Segundo. Upon arrival at Cape Canaveral on Nov. 15, the satellite was moved into a processing facility to complete a series of prelaunch tests that validated the satellite's operational readiness, including its ability to communicate with the ground control segment and launch site.

Boeing has delivered three WGS satellites and is under contract for six more, including WGS-4. They are built on the proven Boeing 702HP platform, which features highly efficient xenon-ion propulsion, deployable thermal radiators, and advanced triple-junction gallium-arsenide solar arrays that enable high-capacity, flexible payloads. The WGS communications payload has unique flexibility that is important to the military, as well as the ability to interconnect terminals that operate in different frequency bands and to reposition coverage beams based on evolving mission needs. WGS supports missions ranging from tactical communications to and between ground forces, to relaying data and imagery from airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance platforms.

A unit of The Boeing Company, Boeing Defense, Space & Security is one of the world's largest defense, space and security businesses specializing in innovative and capabilities-driven customer solutions, and the world's largest and most versatile manufacturer of military aircraft. Headquartered in St. Louis, Boeing Defense, Space & Security is a $32 billion business with 63,000 employees worldwide. Follow us on Twitter: @BoeingDefense.

Photo credit: Boeing photo

Neg. #: SEF11-10875-345

Contact:

Tiffany Pitts
Space & Intelligence Systems
Office: 714-372-2307
Mobile: 714-329-3027
tiffany.l.pitts@boeing.com

Cathie Fjeseth
Space & Intelligence Systems
Office: 310-662-7762
Mobile: 310-977-3600
catherine.fjeseth@boeing.com

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources Boeing
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DTN News - AFGHAN WAR NEWS: Failing To Learn ~ US Resumes Drone Attacks In Pakistan

2012-01-17T18:36:00.000-05:00

Defense News: DTN News - AFGHAN WAR NEWS: Failing To Learn ~ US Resumes Drone Attacks In Pakistan
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Myra MacDonald - Reuters
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 17, 2012: When Pakistan’s Express Tribune wrote this week that the CIA was likely to resume drone strikes for the first time since November, it included a quote from an unnamed Pakistani official saying that Pakistani authorities believed drones were “strategically harmful but tactically advantageous”. I tweeted the link and asked who would explain to the Pakistani public that the drone strikes – which have fuelled intense anti-Americanism – were seen even in their own country as “tactically advantageous”.

One of the answers was particularly telling. It was from a supporter of the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) of former cricketer Imran Khan – who has risen in popularity on a wave of anti-Americanism, opposition to drone strikes, and belief the government of President Asif Ali Zardari has sold out to the United States. Here is the tweet:

“I find this so infuriating. It is about time the present #Zardari administration was shown the door. #PTI for #Pakistan”

Yet the popular view that American money is being used to bribe Zardari into allowing the country to be attacked by U.S. missiles has no basis in reality. In as much as drone strikes are discussed with Pakistan – and there is a great deal of disagreement about how far they should be used - the “red lines” have been negotiated with the Pakistan Army, which controls foreign and security policy. Such is the lack of transparency in Pakistan.

But if that seems too strange, then let’s look at the approach in the United States to drones. We might, perhaps, have expected it to use the pause in drone strikes to improve their transparency. Indeed, given their impact in fuelling anti-Americanism, Washington might have considered publishing some photographs to prove its contention that the drone strikes do not cause the kind of civilian casualties assumed in Pakistan? After all, if Iran could down a drone and gain access to U.S. technology, how much more can be given away in a photograph?

Yet instead, we had a leaked story from the New York Times that the pause in drone strikes was allowing al Qaeda and Pakistani militants to regroup. (Note to the U.S. administration – rightly or wrongly, a leaked story in the NYT is seen in Pakistan as a statement of policy so it would be far better to come out and say it yourself.) And sure enough, just days after that story, the United States resumed drone attacks.

The big problem with this lack of transparency is that it has become almost impossible to discuss the merits of drone strikes rationally. That has been lethal to the U.S.-Pakistan relationship; it is damaging to the U.S. image in the world as a whole; and it is also distorting Pakistan’s current struggle for power between the civilian government and the military.

TALKING TO THE TALIBAN:AN ELUSIVE PEACE IN AFGHANISTAN

It is the season for “progress” on Taliban talks. In January 2010, the London conference on Afghanistan put the idea of negotiating with the Taliban firmly on the international agenda. In February 2011, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in a major policy speech, insisted it was time the United States began to talk to its enemies. Her speech was accompanied by a leaked report that Washington was in factalready holding direct talks with the Taliban to try to convince them to join a political settlement and sever ties with al Qaeda. And now we have the Taliban agreeing to open a liaison office in Qatar to help speed along the talks process as Washington prepares to withdraw most combat troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

But what are we actually looking at here? A quick-fix settlement that could provide just about enough cover for war-weary western governments to pull their troops out before Afghanistan descends again into civil war? Or a serious process which might offer an enduring peace? Do we believe the Taliban are now more amenable to talks than they were before? Or rather that domestic political compulsions in the United States are driving it more rapidly towards the exit?

Let’s be clear. The idea the Taliban would be willing to negotiate some kind of power-sharing deal, and that talks could be helped by measures like the release of prisoners, has been around for a couple of years, if not longer. Moreover, a lasting settlement would require not just a deal with the Afghan Taliban led by Mullah Mohammed Omar, but also reconciliation among all the different actors inside Afghanistan as well as deep-rooted governance reform. It would need intensive regional diplomacy to prevent the country’s neighbours from undermining any settlement — whether this be driven byPakistan’s unhappiness with Indian involvement in Afghanistan, or the temptation for Iran to queer the pitch as its row with the west over its nuclear programme worsens.

Arguably the chances of reaching a lasting settlement are less now than they were before the United States sent extra troops to Afghanistan in 2010 aiming to decisively turn the tide and force the Taliban to the negotiating table from a position of strength. Since then, the military campaign has splintered the Taliban, making it harder for its Pakistan-based leadership to bring younger and more radicalised fighters into an overall settlement. The souring of ties between the United States and Pakistan over 2011 – particularly after the killing of bin Laden on May 2 - and the deteriorating political environment inside Pakistan itself, all argue against the chances of making a real and enduring peace process work.

In that context, a new book due out this month on the relationship between the Taliban and al Qaeda by Kandahar-based researchers Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn could hardly be better timed. “An Enemy We Created, The Myth of the Taliban/Al Qaeda Merger in Afghanistan, 1970-2010” should be compulsory reading for anyone trying to separate reality from political spin. It is also an essential guide to what might yet be achieved through talks, and what might have been achieved had serious talks been held earlier.

The authors, who edited the memoirs of former Taliban ambassador to Pakistan Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, examine in detail the failure of attempts to convince Afghanistan’s then Taliban rulers to expel Osama bin Laden in the years before the Sept. 11 2001 attacks. That these attempts were not inevitably doomed to fail is underlined by their assertion that the relationship between the younger and less experienced Afghan Taliban and the Arabs in al Qaeda was considerably less close than was commonly assumed (an argument also made by other scholars.)

However, they argue that Washington’s single-minded focus on bin Laden jarred with the Taliban’s often conflicted views - where international pressure to expel al Qaeda competed with their own domestic insecurities as well as concerns about how such a move would be viewed by Muslims outside Afghanistan, particularly in the Arab world . Even after the Sept. 11 attacks, the authors argue that an outcome other than war might have been possible. “A different development of the conflict is imaginable. Neither the United States nor the Taliban displayed the political will or insight to make it happen.”

It is the season for “progress” on Taliban talks. In January 2010, the London conference on Afghanistan put the idea of negotiating with the Taliban firmly on the international agenda. In February 2011, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton,in a major policy speech, insisted it was time the United States began to talk to its enemies. Her speech was accompanied by a leaked report that Washington was in fact already holding direct talks with the Taliban to try to convince them to join a political settlement and sever ties with al Qaeda. And now we have the Taliban agreeing to open a liaison office in Qatar to help speed along the talks process as Washington prepares to withdraw most combat troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

Let’s be clear. The idea the Taliban would be willing to negotiate some kind of power-sharing deal, and that talks could be helped by measures like the release of prisoners, has been around for a couple of years, if not longer. Moreover, a lasting settlement would require not just a deal with the Afghan Taliban led by Mullah Mohammed Omar, but also reconciliation among all the different actors inside Afghanistan as well as deep-rooted governance reform. It would need intensive regional diplomacy to prevent the country’s neighbours from undermining any settlement — whether this be driven by Pakistan’s unhappiness with Indian involvement in Afghanistan, or the temptation for Iran to queer the pitch as its row with the west over its nuclear programme worsens.

Arguably the chances of reaching a lasting settlement are less now than they were before the United States sent extra troops to Afghanistan in 2010 aiming to decisively turn the tide and force the Taliban to the negotiating table from a position of strength. Since then, the military campaignhas splintered the Taliban, making it harder for its Pakistan-based leadership to bring younger and more radicalised fighters into an overall settlement. The souring of ties between the United States and Pakistan over 2011 – particularly after the killing of bin Laden on May 2 - and the deteriorating political environment inside Pakistan itself, all argue against the chances of making a real and enduring peace process work.

While this assertion will no doubt be fiercely disputed by historians for years to come, what is relevant to today is that the two sides did not know how to talk to each other. While the United States was in a hurry – just as it is now keen to bring a quick end to the Afghan war – the Taliban dithered, worried about their position inside Afghanistan. While the United States focused on international terrorism and the threat to its own people, the Taliban filtered its views through the prism of Islam. Even today, it is hard to see how two such different entities – one a superpower, the other a relatively new and fragmented movement – can talk to each other directly without an outside mediator, and a great deal of time and patience.

As for the present situation in Afghanistan, the authors argue that a settlement incorporating much of the Taliban movement is becoming harder and harder as the U.S.-led military campaign separates the leadership from new and younger fighters in the field. ”There are still possible interlocutors and options for discussions at the moment, but the veteran Taliban’s leverage over the chain of command is becoming increasingly limited, to a degree that significantly hampers their influence over all parts of the movement currently fighting, rendering the chance of forging a lasting peace more and more unlikely.”

Indeed, while the authors assert that “the supposedly unbreakable link” between the Taliban and al Qaeda was “the principal strategic blunder of the war”, they argue that younger fighters, with no memory of peace in Afghanistan, are now in fact more likely to be drawn towards al Qaeda and other militant groups.

“The new and younger generation of Afghan Taliban are more susceptible to approaches by foreign jihadist groups, including al Qaeda, causing an increasingly ideological shift in the conflict. This development, paired with an overall increase in suspicion among the Afghan population as to the United States and its ‘real intentions’, bodes ill for the future. Current policies … are a key factor driving the Afghan Taliban and al Qaeda together…”

None of that is to suggest that talks are pointless, nor that they should not have been started in earnest much earlier. But it does indicate that it will be incredibly difficult to reach a lasting peace agreement - and bear in mind, the more talk there is of a settlement with the Taliban, the greater is the incentive for their rivals and enemies to prepare for civil war, or for spoilers to try to sabotage the process. (To be fair, the United States and its allies have also been preparing for a situation in which there is no settlement by the end of 2014.)

And in the interests of keeping everyone honest, we should look out for any widening discrepancy between the U.S. domestic political need for a “quick fix” way out of Afghanistan, and the realities on the ground.

*******************************

“An Enemy We Created” is due to be released on January 18.

And among many good reports on a political settlement on Afghanistan, do also read this overall examination by the Afghan Analysts Network; and from earlier last year, this report by The Century Foundation (pdf). For a more micro level look at the kind of compromises which might need to be made, read this report by Antonio Giustozzi and Claudio Franco about how the Taliban have been allowing schools to operate in areas under their influence in return for the introduction of a more conservative curriculum.

(Reuters photo by Ahmad Masood)

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Myra MacDonald - Reuters
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DTN News - DEFENSE NEWS: MEU Marines Seize Airfield During Helicopter Raid

2012-01-16T19:58:00.002-05:00

Defense News: DTN News - DEFENSE NEWS: MEU Marines Seize Airfield During Helicopter Raid

Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Cpl. Jonathan G. Wright , 31st MEU 1/12/2012
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada / IE SHIMA ISLAND, OKINAWA, Japan - January 16, 2012: They charged through the turbulent sea of grass under the thunderous rotor wash of a helicopter behind them, clutching their weapons and choosing the proper spots to take cover. Kneeling and steadying their sights on the tree line beyond, they remained aware of the positions of the Marines to their left and right. Once all were in place, the helicopters rose away, leaving the Marines to face one of their many pre-deployment trials: capturing an enemy encampment.

The Marines of Company C, known as “Helo Co.,” Battalion Landing Team 1st Battalion, 4th Marines, 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, successfully executed a helicopter raid exercise here, Jan. 12. The exercise was in support of Marine Expeditionary Unit Exercise, a multi-week training exercise conducted before every 31st MEU deployment.

“Today we were conducting an amphibious and airborne assault against an enemy insurgent camp,” said 2nd Lt. Joshua Elliott, platoon commander and assault element leader with Company C. “They were harassing the local Ryukyu government, and our mission was to come in, cordon off the objectives. As the assault element, we would come in, breach any objectives, kill or capture the bad guys, conduct tactical site exploitation and extract with all our personnel.”

For the better part of a day, Marines armed with M249 squad automatic weapons and M16-A4 service rifles overtook various enemy-held positions throughout the training area. Although the day’s operation was one in a long line of training scenarios, the Marines acted with a sense of urgency that is seen in actual combat conditions.

“This training prepares us for any action we might see on the MEU,” said Elliott. “We are America’s expeditionary force-in-readiness, ready to conduct those amphibious assaults, knock the door in and lead the way for follow-on forces. When we deploy with the MEU, we are ready for real-time objectives.”

Sgt. Rafael Navarrete, a squad leader with 2nd platoon, Company C., knows that while the training may be repetitive, it is still worthwhile in the end.

“You can rehearse a million times, but the plan is always going to change,” said Navarrete. “We always have to be prepared to make those adjustments on the move. Nothing’s going to go according to plan.”

To further enhance the training these Marines receive, role players are used as the enemy resistance rather than static targets. Having a retaliatory enemy adds to the quick reaction experience these Marines are expected to have.

“Having an opposition force adds that force-on-force realism,” said Navarrete. “Targets won’t allow you to see how the enemy might act. Role players make the training more realistic.”

As the events of the day drew to a close, not only were the people of the Ryukyu government safe from radicals, but the Marines of Company C., BLT 1/4, 31st MEU, further honed their skills before boarding ship.

“Overall the Marines were able to adjust on the move and were keen to what the squad leaders and platoon commanders had to say,” said Navarette. “The mission was a success.”

The 31st MEU is the only continuously forward-deployed MEU and remains the nation’s force in readiness in the Asia-Pacific region.

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Cpl. Jonathan G. Wright , 31st MEU 1/12/2012
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DTN News - IRAN NUCLEAR FACTOR: Major US-Israel Military Drill Postponed

2012-01-16T03:23:00.001-05:00

Defense News: DTN News - IRAN NUCLEAR FACTOR: Major US-Israel Military Drill Postponed
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources AFP
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 15, 2012: Israel and the United States have agreed to postpone a major military defence exercise scheduled for spring, Israeli public radio reported Sunday, amid rising regional tension over Iran’s nuclear program.

The exercise, “Austere Challenge 12,” would be pushed back to the end of 2012 because of unspecified budgetary concerns, the radio said, citing military sources.

An Israeli defence ministry source speaking on condition of anonymity told AFP the delay had not been finalized.

“No final decision has been made yet, discussions with our American counterparts are ongoing,” he said.

But Israel’s army radio, citing a defence official, said the drill was being postponed to avoid “unnecessary headlines in such a tense period.”

The joint manoeuvre was to have been the biggest yet between the two allies, and was seen as an opportunity to display their joint military strength at a time of growing concern about Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Israel, the United States and much of the international community accuse Iran of using its nuclear program to mask a weapons drive, a charge Tehran denies.

The postponement appeared to suggest fears the exercise could dangerously ramp up regional tensions, at a time when Iran has already threatened to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for one fifth of the world’s traded oil — in the event of a military strike or severe tightening of international sanctions over its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, the United States sent Iran a letter over its threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said Sunday, without revealing the letter’s contents.

“The U.S. ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, sent a letter to Mohammad Khazaie, Iran’s UN representative, which was conveyed by the Swiss ambassador, and finally Iraqi President Jalal Talabani delivered its contents to officials” in Iran, the official IRNA news agency quoted Ramin Mehmanparast as saying.

“We are in the process of studying the letter and if necessary we will respond.”

Last month, the Israelis insisted the joint manoeuvres were planned in advance and denied they were related to Iran.

“The exercise scenario involves notional, simulated events as well as some field training and is not in response to any real-world event,” the military told AFP.

The postponement was not expected to affect a visit to Israel by top U.S. military chief General Martin Dempsey, who is scheduled to arrive later this week and meet with Israel’s Defence Minister Ehud Barak and Chief of Staff Benny Gantz.

But the delay was announced as reports suggested unease in U.S.-Israeli relations over the best response to Iran’s nuclear program, and after an Israeli official voiced “disappointment” at Washington’s approach.

Washington has spearheaded a push for international sanctions against Iran, including on its oil exports and financial institutions.

But Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon told public radio he thought U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration should be tougher.

“France and Britain understand that the sanctions must be strengthened, in particular against the Iranian Central Bank,” Yaalon said.

“The U.S. Senate is also in favour, but the U.S. government is hesitating, fearing higher oil prices in an election year,” Yaalon said. “It’s disappointing.”

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon, speaking Sunday ahead of a trip to Britain, also accused the international community of dragging its feet.

“It is regrettable that the international community has not yet used all the means at its disposal to stop the Iranian nuclear program,” he told public radio.

Israel has made no secret of its desire to see crippling sanctions imposed on Iran in a bid to slow its nuclear development, and reports suggest it has also taken other actions to delay the program.

The Jewish state is suspected of involvement both in a computer worm that reportedly set back Iran’s nuclear efforts, as well as a campaign of assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists.

Media reports have pointed the finger at Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad.

Foreign Policy magazine reported that Israel’s actions had created friction with Washington, and the Wall Street Journal said on Friday U.S. officials had warned Israel against unilateral military action against Iran.

Yaalon said Sunday that a military strike remained a last resort for Israel.

“Israel must defend itself. I hope that we will not arrive at that point,” he said.

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Actions are held to be good or bad, not on their own merits, but according to who does them, and there is almost no kind of outrage - torture, the use of hostages, forced labour, mass deportations, imprisonment without trial, forgery, assassination, ...

JOINT US-ISRAEL MILITARY EXERCISE POSTPONED - SOURCE

Reuters Africa - ‎3 hours ago‎

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - The United States and Israel have postponed a joint military exercise due to be held in the coming weeks until later in the year, an Israeli security source told Reuters Sunday. "I can confirm the exercise has been postponed,...

US, ISRAEL POSTPONE MILITARY EXERCISE AMID TENSION WITH IRAN

Los Angeles Times - ‎3 hours ago‎

REPORTING FROM JERUSALEM -- The United States and Israel agreed to postpone a large joint military exercise from this spring to late in the year to avoid aggravating an already tense regional situation driven by conflicts with Iran, Israeli media ...

MAJOR US-ISRAEL MILITARY DRILL POSTPONED

AFP - ‎4 hours ago‎

JERUSALEM — Israel and the United States have agreed to postpone a major military defence exercise scheduled for spring, a senior security official said Sunday, amid rising regional tension over Iran's nuclear programme. "Israel and the United States ...

US MILITARY CHIEF TO ISRAEL AS IRAN TENSION GROWS

ABC News - ‎4 hours ago‎

By ARON HELLER AP The top US military commander is scheduled for talks in Israel this week, Israel said Sunday, at a time when the US is concerned that Israel might be preparing to attack Iran over its nuclear program. The Israeli Defense Ministry ...

STOPPING IRAN'S NUKES

Jerusalem Post - ‎4 hours ago‎

By JPOST EDITORIAL Iran seems intent on pushing forward with its nuclear program and there seems to be no surefire way of stopping it. If the current situation continues, we might have to face the horrific prospect of learning to live with a nuclear ...

ISRAEL & US CANCEL JOINT MILITARY EXERCISE

Agenzia Giornalistica Italia - ‎4 hours ago‎

(AGI) Jerusalem, Jan. 15 - The United States has asked Israel to delay joint military exercises scheduled for the next few weeks in order to avoid giving Iran an excuse to raise tensions. The exercise, code named Austere Challenge 12, ...

UK FOREIGN SECRETARY: EU TO AGREE ON IRAN OIL EMBARGO BY END OF JAN -REPORT

Wall Street Journal (India) - ‎4 hours ago‎

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Europe will agree on sanctions banning the purchase of oil from Iran by the end of the month, UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said Sunday, according to London's Telegraph newspaper. Unnamed European Union officials have ...

JOINT CHIEFS CHAIRMAN HEADED TO ISRAEL AMID IRAN THREAT

Fox News - ‎4 hours ago‎

Israel's military confirmed Sunday that Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Martin Dempsey will travel to the Mideast nation this week for talks, as Israel's No. 2 public official suggested that President Obama is being meek about Iran ahead of the US ...

GIVE PEACE A CHANCE? US AND ISRAEL POSTPONE LARGEST JOINT DRILL

RT - ‎5 hours ago‎

“Austere Challenge 12”, the US-Israel joint-missile defense drill, has been postponed till the summer at the earliest, according to Israeli media. Some link the move to Washington's growing concern Israel may be planning a unilateral attack on Iran. ...

IRAN ACCUSES ISRAEL OF SCIENTIST DEATH

International News Network - ‎5 hours ago‎

Tehran: Iran's first Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi said here on Sunday that the Zionist regime was undoubtedly behind the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan. Addressing a local gathering, he said such an evil act ...

DANGEROUS GAMES IN THE GULF

Khaleej Times - ‎5 hours ago‎

The United States and Iran are playing an increasingly dangerous game of chicken in the Gulf. War could be only a ship collision or aircraft intrusion away. Nations often blunder into war due to miscalculation, arrogance or wrong intelligence. ...

MAJOR ISRAEL, US MILITARY DRILL POSTPONED OVER IRAN TENSIONS: REPORTS

National Post - ‎5 hours ago‎

JERUSALEM – Israel and the United States have agreed to postpone a major military defence exercise scheduled for spring, Israeli public radio reported Sunday, amid rising regional tension over Iran's nuclear program. The exercise, “Austere Challenge 12 ...

IRAN WILL GIVE A FIRM RESPONSE TO US, UK OVER ASSASSINATION: MINISTER

Tehran Times - ‎5 hours ago‎

TEHRAN – Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi has said that Iran will give a firm response to the United States, Britain, and Israel which had a hand in the assassination of the Iranian academic, Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan. Ahmadi-Roshan, a graduate of ...

US PLANS TO ELIMINATE ECONOMIC RIVALS THROUGH IRAN SANCTIONS: OFFICIAL

Tehran Times - ‎5 hours ago‎

TEHRAN – Through sanctions against Iran the United States is seeking to eliminate its economic rivals, particularly China and India, an Iranian Foreign Ministry official argues. The comment by Ramin Mehmanparast, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, ...

'CERTAIN INSPECTORS HAVE PROVIDED TERRORISTS WITH IRANIAN SCIENTISTS' PARTICULARS'

Tehran Times - ‎5 hours ago‎

TEHRAN – Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has said that there is evidence that certain international inspectors, who have travelled to Iran to inspect (nuclear) facilities, have provided terrorist groups with Iranian nuclear ...

EUROPE SET TO ANNOUNCE BAN ON IRANIAN OIL, WILLIAM HAGUE SAYS

Telegraph.co.uk - ‎5 hours ago‎

Europe will agree sanctions banning the purchase of oil from Iran by the end of the month, William Hague, the foreign secretary, said on Sunday as Saudi Arabia promised it could boost output to make up the shortfall. By Richard Spencer, Middle East ...

EUROZONE MUST FOCUS ON GROWTH: BRITAIN

AFP - ‎5 hours ago‎

LONDON — Eurozone countries must concentrate on boosting growth and cutting regulation following the downgrading of several nations in the bloc, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said Sunday. Hague said the decision on Friday by ratings agency ...

US MILITARY CHIEF TO VISIT ISRAEL AS IRAN TENSION GROWS

NDTV - ‎6 hours ago‎

AP, Updated: January 15, 2012 23:43 IST Jerusalem: The top US military commander is scheduled for talks in Israel this week, Israel said Sunday, at a time when the US is concerned that Israel might be preparing to attack Iran over its nuclear program. ...

'BACKING IRAN SANCTIONS HARMS ITALY'

Tehran Times - ‎6 hours ago‎

Iran's Ambassador to Italy Seyyed Mohammad-Ali Hosseini says supporting West-led sanction scenario against Iranian oil industry does not serve interests of the Italian nation. In an interview with Italian news agency ANSA on Saturday, ...

'NO PLANS' FOR WESTERN MILITARY ACTION ON SYRIA, IRAN

AFP - ‎6 hours ago‎

LONDON — Western nations have no immediate plans for military action to stop the repression of protests in Syria or to halt Iran's nuclear programme, Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Sunday. Asked if there was a possibility of a no-fly zone in ...

CONFESSIONS OF A MOSSAD SPY

National Post - ‎7 hours ago‎

A young woman is reunited with her mother in Tel Aviv after being one of 104 hostages held for a week by terrorists in 1974. Former spy Michael Ross was on Mossad's very first pathfinding mission into Iran in 1993. As a combatant in the Israeli ...

WHAT'S BEHIND EUROPE'S TOUGH STANCE ON IRAN?

Christian Science Monitor - ‎7 hours ago‎

European powers have agreed in principle to embargo Iranian oil, the lifeblood of Iran's economy, adding to tough sanctions already in place. By Robert Marquand, Staff Writer / January 15, 2012 Europe may give an impression of favoring diplomacy over ...

JOINT US-ISRAEL DRILL POSTPONED TO 'DEFUSE IRAN TENSIONS'

Ynetnews - ‎7 hours ago‎

A number of global media outlets said the exercise will likely take place in the summer – at the earliest. Israeli officials said the Americans asked to delay the drill so as not to heighten tensions with Iran over its nuclear program and avoid drawing ...

ISRAEL WAS BEHIND IRANIAN SCIENTIST'S DEATH, TIME REPORTS

Jewish Telegraphic Agency - ‎8 hours ago‎

JERUSALEM (JTA) -- Israel's Mossad assassinated an Iranian scientist in a bomb attack, Time Magazine reported, citing unnamed Western intelligence sources. The report Saturday came as Iranian state television reported that the Islamic Republic had ...

EUROZONE RATINGS CUT SHOWS NEED TO SPUR GROWTH: UK

Economic Times - ‎8 hours ago‎

LONDON: Standard & Poor's decision to cut the sovereign credit ratings of nine euro zone countries shows Europe must step up its efforts to kick-start growth, Britain's foreign minister said on Sunday. William Hague also said Britain's Foreign Office ...

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources AFP
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*This article is being posted from Toronto, Canada By DTN News ~ Defense-Technology News Contact:dtnnews@ymail.com
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DTN News ~ US-NATO-ISRAEL WAR PLANS TO ATTACK IRAN: Will US Go To War With Iran?

2012-01-14T14:13:00.002-05:00

Defense News: DTN News ~ US-NATO-ISRAEL WAR PLANS TO ATTACK IRAN: Will US Go To War With Iran?

Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Katerina Azarova is a news reporter for RT/Global Research.ca
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 14, 2012: As sparks fly dangerously close to the powder keg of US-Iranian relations, speculations are rife and rumors spread like wildfire. Will there be a war? Who wants it? And what will happen to this very lucrative region?

Google the words “Iran”, “USA” and “war” and you get over 140 million hits. Many believe the possibility of a military conflict between the two is not even a question of “if”but a question of “when”. And there is definitely enough evidence around to lend support to these beliefs.

Let’s break it down. Will there be a war? According to Israeli military analysts quoted by Global Research, an independent research and media organization, that possibility is “dangerously close”. But let’s say analysts, especially military ones, are of the boy-scout-always-be-prepared disposition by nature. What other evidence is there?

Occam’s razor states that the simplest explanation is the most plausible. Logic tells us to follow the money – and in this case, the cases of weapons shipped out by the US. So where are they headed to?

In October 2010, the US negotiated a $67 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to supply the latter with bunker-buster bombs, F-15 fighter jets, Black Hawk and Apache helicopters, Patriot-2 missiles and warships. It is, in simple terms, the LARGEST bilateral weapons deal in US history.

One month later, in November, the Wall Street Journal revealed that the United States will proved the United Arab Emirates with “thousands of advanced ‘bunker-buster’ bombs and other munitions, part of a stepped-up US effort to build a regional coalition to counter Iran.”

Washington also plans to supply Stinger and other missiles to Oman. Kuwait is in for $900 million worth of Patriot missiles. And a $53 billion arms deal with Bahrain is still on the agenda – delayed only because of pressure from international lawmakers and human rights groups.

So the United States is increasing military ties with its allies, one might claim. And it is true, but all those allies are conveniently located in the Persian Gulf…right next to Iran.

It’s not just weapons, either. Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman all have US military bases on their territory. And with the US most likely asking NATO in for a piece of the action, alliance members like Turkey are perfectly positioned to lend a helping hand. Besides being conveniently close geographically, Ankara has also been holding on to a lot of US nuclear weapons, including a large number of B61 bombs.

But all this does, effectively, is highlight the military capabilities of the US in the region. Categorically stating all this is being done by the Department of Defense as part of a preparation for war with Iran would be irresponsible – until the Pentagon men say so themselves.

Oh wait…they have been. For years.

In late 2005, then CIA director Porter Goss, who was visiting Ankara, requested that the Turkish prime minister “provide political and logistical support for air strikes against Iranian nuclear and military targets."

In 2006, the Israeli prime minister green lights a military strike against Iran. Various staged war games always focused on the possibility of military conflict with Iran. And all these years later, Secretary of State Clinton’s former advisor on Iran still says Obama is more than willing to launch a pre-emptive strike.

Michel Chossudovsky, economist and director of the Centre for Research on Globalization, says there have been specific, detailed military plans for war with Iran since 2003.

"These war plans go back to the 1990s or even before that. If you look at active war plans, you can say May 2003, when the Department of Defense came up with the strategic concept plan CON8022, dubbed “Global Strike”. The framework of attacking Iran and the scenarios and the war plans have been going on for the last 8 years. We have so much evidence of covert operations, of scenarios, of drone attacks, of regime change scenarios. And its not only the United States that are preparing. The Iranians have been preparing for this war for years. They have the S-300 missile defense system, very extensive ground forces – enough to overrun the remaining US forces in Iraq. Our estimates are that Iran can mobilize two million troops overnight."

Preparations, strong allies in the region, huge defense budget for 2012 – all the signs point to the Americans getting ready for a potential war. But when – and how – does it start?

According to the editor-in-chief of Russia’s ‘National Defense’ magazine Igor Korotchenko, anything can trigger the triggers. “If the US pushes through more sanctions and Iran closes off the Strait of Hormuz in return, that could easily be enough. Basically, Washington will use any convenient reason that appears legitimate cause for the international community to attack.”

And with the upcoming US-Israeli war games in the Strait of Hormuz, analysts like Chossudovsky say a convenient reason will be very easy to come by. “The Strait is very narrow. There’s not a lot of space before Iran’s territorial waters begin. And they would have to respond to a violation of its territorial waters.” He goes on to speculate that faced with such a violation, Iran would have no choice but to send an ultimatum the 5th Fleet commanders there, which will be ignored for some reason. Then, according to international law, a second ultimatum. If that’s ignored, Iran has no choice but to act – leaving America in its preferred position of reacting.”

History does support this notion of provocation being a favored US military tactic. Richard Sanders of the Coalition Against the Arms Trade looked at US war history in detail and came out with a rather disturbing conclusion: starting from the Mexican-American war in 1846, pretext incidents have been used every time; incidents that were later disproved, or re-interpreted by historians, journalists and political committees; incidents that have become a military trademark for one of the world’s youngest, but most war-hungry nations.

Sanders’ statement is echoed by many – including www.infowars.com associate editor Patrick Henningsen. Examples he highlights are historical facts that show just how manipulative the US Department of Defense can be. “This is how the US was able to fake their way into the Vietnam War, via the infamous Gulf of Tonkin Incident. Likewise, Israel's slaughter of the USS Liberty naval crew in 1967 was designed as a false flag event, but luckily Russia intervened at the last minute before Israel could sink the American ship.”

It wouldn’t be the first time the US has tried to push Iran’s buttons. As revealed by a senior British officer a few years ago, there were times in Iraq when the US military commanders ordered British troops to prepare a full-scale ground offensive against Iranian forces that had crossed the border and grabbed disputed territory. “If we had attacked the Iranian positions, all hell would have broken loose," the unnamed officer said.

Unfortunately, “all hell breaking loose” is a scenario that is still not off the table. Iran, while not having many allies willing to go to bat for it in the region, can still put up a fight.

Iran plays a critical role in the Persian Gulf and with its strategic geography not only dominates the Northern Gulf but the shipping lines both inside and outside the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s leadership adheres to a "no first strike doctrine” and thus Iran has launched no wars of choice in modern history. The Iranian constitution bans the establishment of any foreign military bases in the country, even for peaceful purposes.

Following the Islamic revolution in 1979 Iran also divided its armed forces into regular and revolutionary components. The Iran’s Revolutionary Guards is separated from the regular army and has its own Navy, Aerospace and Ground Forces, as well as Special Forces.

And past experiences have also shown that for the American Armed Forces, a war with Iran, a country that in population is larger than the four countries recently invaded by the US put together, will not be a walk in the park. The Pentagon’s own war games in 2002 showed that in the event of an armed conflict, the United States would be overwhelmed by Iran in the Persian Gulf.

As speculated by researcher and sociologist Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, “despite its might and shear strength, geography literally works against US naval power in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. The relative narrowness of the Persian Gulf makes it like a channel, at least in a strategic and military context. Figuratively speaking, the aircraft carriers and warships of the US are confined to narrow waters or are closed in within the coastal waters of the Persian Gulf. This is where the Iranian military’s advanced missile capabilities come into play. The Iranian missile and torpedo arsenal would make short work of US naval assets in the waters of the Persian Gulf where U. vessels are constricted.”

Allies-wise, Iran is more or less on its own. Syria, its closest ally, is too caught up in the almost year-long violence that has been shaking the country, Armenia is a possible and Lebanon’s Hezbollah could shift their allegiance either way. The Shanghai Cooperation Council is a regional organization that has a few powerful friends, namely China and Russia, but whether they will want to get involved in an all-out military conflict is doubtful.

A statement made by Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the Russian Duma Committee for International Affairs, said that “a military operation against Iran could have grave consequences. And Russia should make every effort to control emotions, bring negotiations back into the field of political and expert discussion, and not allow any such action against Iran.”

As for China, it is showing Tehran some support by refusing to fold under US pressure and halt oil imports from Iran. But it has never been one to show its hand before it had to, so the extent of China’s potential involvement in the conflict is also open to debate.

Some analysts, like Patrick Henningsen, believe that should other countries get drawn into the conflict, it could signify the beginning of a new, economical Cold War-era. Henningsen says that “we have the ideal set of conditions for a New Cold War to emerge in the early 21st Century – one where the Western Axis powers of the US, Europe, Israel and GCC countries sit on one side, and with Iran, Syria, Pakistan, China, and perhaps Russia sitting on the opposite side. This New Cold War will be more about sub-regional dominance in terms of economics – natural gas, mineral and trade relationships, as well as petroleum – than it will about the political ideologies that seemed to dominate the previous 20th Century Cold War.”

As sparks fly and tensions reach critical points, experts and analysts argue over who will start the war, why they will start the war, how the war will develop, whether it will spill out into World War III and what will happen in the end. Opinions are varied, detailed and range from the simplistic and obvious to the complex and conspiratorial.

And the only one thing they all agree on? That it isn’t a matter of IF the war between the United States and Iran will happen. It’s a matter of WHEN.

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Katerina Azarova is a news reporter for RT/Global Research.ca
*Speaking Image - Creation of DTN News ~ Defense Technology News
*This article is being posted from Toronto, Canada By DTN News ~ Defense-Technology News Contact:dtnnews@ymail.com
©COPYRIGHT (C) DTN NEWS DEFENSE-TECHNOLOGY NEWS